BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 12 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Ovenbird In Boreal Hardwood Transition

All regionsBoreal Hardwood TransitionForest birds

Ovenbird in Boreal Hardwood Transition has risen sharply: up 67% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

+67%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
127Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Ovenbird has risen sharply in Boreal Hardwood Transition: up 67% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Ovenbird In Boreal Hardwood Transition Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Ovenbird in Boreal Hardwood Transition is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 44 (95% range 40–48). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±3.6%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+9%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
44Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
40–4895% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±3.6%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Ovenbird in Boreal Hardwood Transition is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 44 (95% range 40–48). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±3.6%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
2025433946
2026433947
2027433947
2028434047
2029444048

Routes In Boreal Hardwood Transition

Routes recording Ovenbird in Boreal Hardwood Transition.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
MellenWISCONSIN1242024
LockportMINNESOTA1072024
Sawbill LndgMINNESOTA1032024
Cluster LakesMICHIGAN1012010
SidnawMICHIGAN1002024
BlackduckMINNESOTA982022
GooseneckMICHIGAN902010
ChisholmMINNESOTA902024
EnsignMICHIGAN842010
Sherry LakeMINNESOTA832022
Big Island LakeMICHIGAN782010
Weirgor SpringsWISCONSIN752024
Scott'S MarshMICHIGAN712010
Hart LakeMINNESOTA702024
CavourWISCONSIN672024
BayfieldWISCONSIN662024
JordanMINNESOTA632023
Grand ViewWISCONSIN632024
ShanagoldenWISCONSIN622024
ConoverWISCONSIN622024
FlambeauWISCONSIN622024
Cass LakeMINNESOTA602016
Popple RiverWISCONSIN572024
Imp LakeMICHIGAN562019
Isabella 2MICHIGAN552024

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.