BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 23 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Ovenbird In Prairie Hardwood Transition

All regionsPrairie Hardwood TransitionForest birds

Ovenbird in Prairie Hardwood Transition has surged: up 87% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

+87%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
126Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Ovenbird has surged in Prairie Hardwood Transition: up 87% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Ovenbird In Prairie Hardwood Transition Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Ovenbird in Prairie Hardwood Transition is projected to rise about 53% by 2029 — from 2.9 in 2024 to a central estimate of 4.5 (95% range 2.8–6.2). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±52%, with 40% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+53%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
4.5Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
2.8–6.295% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±52%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Ovenbird in Prairie Hardwood Transition is projected to rise about 53% by 2029 — from 2.9 in 2024 to a central estimate of 4.5 (95% range 2.8–6.2). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±52%, with 40% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20254.42.76.1
20264.42.76.1
20274.42.76.1
20284.52.86.1
20294.52.86.2

Routes In Prairie Hardwood Transition

Routes recording Ovenbird in Prairie Hardwood Transition.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
HatfieldWISCONSIN631998
Pigeon CreekWISCONSIN402024
CadottWISCONSIN392024
MatherWISCONSIN382023
ScottvilleMICHIGAN252024
Stevens PtWISCONSIN222023
CumberlandWISCONSIN192024
MerrillWISCONSIN182024
SaxevilleWISCONSIN152024
Brook ParkMINNESOTA142024
Barry S.G.A.MICHIGAN122012
Big RapidsMICHIGAN111990
MontereyMICHIGAN112024
EvergreenMINNESOTA112024
HungerfordMICHIGAN102024
Big Blue LkMICHIGAN92024
UnityWISCONSIN92024
Oconto FallsWISCONSIN92023
PrincetonWISCONSIN92024
RemusMICHIGAN82024
Allegan WmaMICHIGAN72019
CaledoniaMINNESOTA72012
WeyerhauserWISCONSIN72024
HolwayWISCONSIN71989
GreshamWISCONSIN72024

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.