BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 23 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Ovenbird In Prairie Hardwood Transition

All regionsPrairie Hardwood TransitionForest birds

Ovenbird in Prairie Hardwood Transition has surged: up 84% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

+84%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
126Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
59YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Ovenbird has surged in Prairie Hardwood Transition: up 84% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Ovenbird In Prairie Hardwood Transition Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Ovenbird in Prairie Hardwood Transition is projected to rise about 38% by 2030 — from 3.2 in 2025 to a central estimate of 4.4 (95% range 2.7–6.1). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±48.6%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+38%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
4.4Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
2.7–6.195% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±48.6%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Ovenbird in Prairie Hardwood Transition is projected to rise about 38% by 2030 — from 3.2 in 2025 to a central estimate of 4.4 (95% range 2.7–6.1). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±48.6%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20264.32.66.0
20274.32.66.0
20284.42.76.1
20294.42.76.1
20304.42.76.1

Routes In Prairie Hardwood Transition

Routes recording Ovenbird in Prairie Hardwood Transition.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
HatfieldWISCONSIN631998
MatherWISCONSIN382023
ScottvilleMICHIGAN362025
Pigeon CreekWISCONSIN322025
MontereyMICHIGAN292025
CadottWISCONSIN252025
Stevens PtWISCONSIN222023
MerrillWISCONSIN162025
CumberlandWISCONSIN152025
HungerfordMICHIGAN142025
EvergreenMINNESOTA132025
Brook ParkMINNESOTA132025
Barry S.G.A.MICHIGAN122012
StetsonvilleWISCONSIN122025
Big RapidsMICHIGAN111990
RemusMICHIGAN112025
GreshamWISCONSIN102025
Oconto FallsWISCONSIN92023
PrincetonWISCONSIN92024
Allegan WmaMICHIGAN72019
CaledoniaMINNESOTA72012
HolwayWISCONSIN71989
LoraineWISCONSIN62025
UnityWISCONSIN62025
SaxevilleWISCONSIN62025

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.