BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 17 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Ovenbird In Badlands and Prairies

All regionsBadlands and PrairiesForest birds

Ovenbird in Badlands and Prairies has held roughly steady: up 6% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

+6%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
42Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Ovenbird in Badlands and Prairies. See the full index history below.

Ovenbird In Badlands and Prairies Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Ovenbird in Badlands and Prairies is projected to rise about 68% by 2029 — from 1.2 in 2024 to a central estimate of 2.0 (95% range 0.94–3.0). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±75.1%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+68%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
2.0Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.94–3.095% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±75.1%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Ovenbird in Badlands and Prairies is projected to rise about 68% by 2029 — from 1.2 in 2024 to a central estimate of 2.0 (95% range 0.94–3.0). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±75.1%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20251.90.882.9
20261.90.902.9
20271.90.913.0
20281.90.933.0
20292.00.943.0

Routes In Badlands and Prairies

Routes recording Ovenbird in Badlands and Prairies.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Moskee 3WYOMING332024
Moskee 2WYOMING272021
SundanceWYOMING262024
MoskeeWYOMING202001
NorbeckSOUTH-DAKOTA112002
Silver CitySOUTH-DAKOTA92012
Hill CitySOUTH-DAKOTA82013
Long DrawSOUTH-DAKOTA72024
Elk MountainSOUTH-DAKOTA72004
Lightning CrSOUTH-DAKOTA52022
Maynard CouleeMONTANA42024
Pleasant ValSOUTH-DAKOTA42024
HazelrodtSOUTH-DAKOTA42024
RochfordSOUTH-DAKOTA32018
Reed PointMONTANA22009
TobaccoNORTH-DAKOTA22006
CusterSOUTH-DAKOTA22024
Black FoxSOUTH-DAKOTA22017
Wind Cave NpSOUTH-DAKOTA22024
BrusettMONTANA11984
ForsythMONTANA12017
LocateMONTANA12013
BrandenbergMONTANA12019
Miles CityMONTANA12023
Chuffey SpringMONTANA12019

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.