BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 14 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Ovenbird In Atlantic Northern Forest

All regionsAtlantic Northern ForestForest birds

Ovenbird in Atlantic Northern Forest has surged: up 82% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

+82%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
156Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
59YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Ovenbird has surged in Atlantic Northern Forest: up 82% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Ovenbird In Atlantic Northern Forest Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Ovenbird in Atlantic Northern Forest is projected to stay roughly flat through 2030, near 28 (95% range 24–32). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±13.1%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+10%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
28Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
24–3295% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±13.1%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Ovenbird in Atlantic Northern Forest is projected to stay roughly flat through 2030, near 28 (95% range 24–32). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±13.1%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
2026272331
2027272332
2028272332
2029282332
2030282432

Routes In Atlantic Northern Forest

Routes recording Ovenbird in Atlantic Northern Forest.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
NorthfieldMAINE911981
WanakenaNEW-YORK632025
MarlboroVERMONT522025
ChesterfieldMASSACHUSETTS502025
InletNEW-YORK502017
StrattonVERMONT492025
LandgroveVERMONT482025
WarrensburgNEW-YORK472019
CooperMAINE452021
DegrasseNEW-YORK442025
CummingtonMASSACHUSETTS432014
MontereyMASSACHUSETTS412025
Hope FallsNEW-YORK411995
Horse MtnMAINE392011
N OrangeMASSACHUSETTS392025
Underwood 2NEW-YORK392009
NesowadnehunMAINE382021
Horseshoe L.NEW-YORK382017
MiddlesexVERMONT382025
ManchesterMAINE371995
Carrying PlMAINE372025
PittsfieldMASSACHUSETTS372016
Old Forge 2NEW-YORK372019
WytopitlockMAINE362025
WaiteMAINE361977

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.