BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 14 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Ovenbird In Atlantic Northern Forest

All regionsAtlantic Northern ForestForest birds

Ovenbird in Atlantic Northern Forest has surged: up 78% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

+78%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
156Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Ovenbird has surged in Atlantic Northern Forest: up 78% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Ovenbird In Atlantic Northern Forest Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Ovenbird in Atlantic Northern Forest is projected to rise about 17% by 2029 — from 24 in 2024 to a central estimate of 28 (95% range 23–32). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±12.6%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+17%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
28Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
23–3295% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±12.6%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Ovenbird in Atlantic Northern Forest is projected to rise about 17% by 2029 — from 24 in 2024 to a central estimate of 28 (95% range 23–32). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±12.6%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
2025272331
2026272331
2027272332
2028282332
2029282332

Routes In Atlantic Northern Forest

Routes recording Ovenbird in Atlantic Northern Forest.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
NorthfieldMAINE911981
ChesterfieldMASSACHUSETTS702024
CharlestonMAINE572019
WanakenaNEW-YORK552024
DegrasseNEW-YORK542024
BrooksMAINE532019
InletNEW-YORK502017
WarrensburgNEW-YORK472019
MarlboroVERMONT472024
StrattonVERMONT472024
CooperMAINE452021
Carrying PlMAINE442024
East CalaisVERMONT442024
N OrangeMASSACHUSETTS432024
CummingtonMASSACHUSETTS432014
Hope FallsNEW-YORK411995
MiddlesexVERMONT412024
Horse MtnMAINE392011
MontereyMASSACHUSETTS392024
Underwood 2NEW-YORK392009
ReedsMAINE382024
NesowadnehunMAINE382021
Horseshoe L.NEW-YORK382017
LandgroveVERMONT382024
ManchesterMAINE371995

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.