BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 24 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Ovenbird In Central Hardwoods

All regionsCentral HardwoodsForest birds

Ovenbird in Central Hardwoods has surged: up 273% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

+273%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
123Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
59YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Ovenbird has surged in Central Hardwoods: up 272% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Ovenbird In Central Hardwoods Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Ovenbird in Central Hardwoods is projected to rise about 49% by 2030 — from 1.7 in 2025 to a central estimate of 2.6 (95% range 1.7–3.5). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±47.4%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+49%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
2.6Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
1.7–3.595% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±47.4%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Ovenbird in Central Hardwoods is projected to rise about 49% by 2030 — from 1.7 in 2025 to a central estimate of 2.6 (95% range 1.7–3.5). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±47.4%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20262.41.53.4
20272.51.63.4
20282.51.63.4
20292.51.63.5
20302.61.73.5

Routes In Central Hardwoods

Routes recording Ovenbird in Central Hardwoods.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
HoosierINDIANA402025
Mammoth CaveKENTUCKY362014
ComptonARKANSAS242022
CentervilleMISSOURI212025
Mammoth Cave NorthKENTUCKY202013
Ozark NfARKANSAS152025
Clementine 2MISSOURI142007
Boston Mtn.ARKANSAS122025
GranitevilleMISSOURI102025
BennettMISSOURI92025
ClementineMISSOURI82002
MarshallARKANSAS72021
BelmontINDIANA72024
WescoMISSOURI72025
Trace CollinwoodTENNESSEE72018
WilliamsvillMISSOURI62025
RudyARKANSAS52025
CascadeMISSOURI52025
IrontonMISSOURI51980
Osage BeachMISSOURI52025
ZionARKANSAS41996
Cave In RockILLINOIS42023
CelestineINDIANA42002
LeveeKENTUCKY41982
PalaceMISSOURI42025

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.