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Species · BCR 25 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Ovenbird In West Gulf Coastal Plain / Ouachitas

All regionsWest Gulf Coastal Plain / OuachitasForest birds

Ovenbird in West Gulf Coastal Plain / Ouachitas has held roughly steady: down 4% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

-4%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
22Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Ovenbird in West Gulf Coastal Plain / Ouachitas. See the full index history below.

Ovenbird In West Gulf Coastal Plain / Ouachitas Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Ovenbird in West Gulf Coastal Plain / Ouachitas is projected to rise about 96% by 2029 — from 0.59 in 2024 to a central estimate of 1.2 (95% range 0.65–1.7). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±73.1%, with 40% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+96%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
1.2Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.65–1.795% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±73.1%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Ovenbird in West Gulf Coastal Plain / Ouachitas is projected to rise about 96% by 2029 — from 0.59 in 2024 to a central estimate of 1.2 (95% range 0.65–1.7). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±73.1%, with 40% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20251.10.601.6
20261.10.611.6
20271.10.621.6
20281.10.641.6
20291.20.651.7

Routes In West Gulf Coastal Plain / Ouachitas

Routes recording Ovenbird in West Gulf Coastal Plain / Ouachitas.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
WaldronARKANSAS92024
Big CedarOKLAHOMA82024
Hatfield 2ARKANSAS72024
RamseyARKANSAS51987
CrowsARKANSAS51991
Old MiloARKANSAS41994
PoyenARKANSAS31985
AshdownARKANSAS21987
BlakelyARKANSAS21999
SimsARKANSAS22024
Magazine MtnARKANSAS22021
Ouachita NfOKLAHOMA22024
StampsARKANSAS12022
HollywoodARKANSAS12024
StarkARKANSAS12023
HavanaARKANSAS12018
NanceARKANSAS12015
Dry ForkARKANSAS12023
Dry Fork 2ARKANSAS12024
BethelOKLAHOMA12006
Mt. HermanOKLAHOMA12017
Hee MountainOKLAHOMA12023

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.