BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 28 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Ovenbird In Appalachian Mountains

All regionsAppalachian MountainsForest birds

Ovenbird in Appalachian Mountains has surged: up 313% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

+313%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
394Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
59YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Ovenbird has surged in Appalachian Mountains: up 313% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Ovenbird In Appalachian Mountains Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Ovenbird in Appalachian Mountains is projected to rise about 10% by 2030 — from 17 in 2025 to a central estimate of 18 (95% range 15–21). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±9.2%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+10%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
18Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
15–2195% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±9.2%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Ovenbird in Appalachian Mountains is projected to rise about 10% by 2030 — from 17 in 2025 to a central estimate of 18 (95% range 15–21). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±9.2%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
2026171420
2027181421
2028181521
2029181521
2030181521

Routes In Appalachian Mountains

Routes recording Ovenbird in Appalachian Mountains.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Tussey Mtn.PENNSYLVANIA1192025
Broad Mtn.PENNSYLVANIA1002025
Sproul Sf-BPENNSYLVANIA782025
Tar HollowOHIO762024
LynchPENNSYLVANIA742025
DuboistownPENNSYLVANIA712024
Rothrock SfPENNSYLVANIA702019
PottersdalePENNSYLVANIA672025
Cherry SprsPENNSYLVANIA652025
AnsoniaPENNSYLVANIA652025
Sproul Sf-APENNSYLVANIA612025
Russell CityPENNSYLVANIA592025
EllentonPENNSYLVANIA552025
Ltl Pine CrPENNSYLVANIA542025
S Berne 2NEW-YORK522025
Zaleski S.F.OHIO522025
Marsh HillPENNSYLVANIA522025
RoulettePENNSYLVANIA512021
Roulette 2PENNSYLVANIA512025
OdinPENNSYLVANIA502025
RasselasPENNSYLVANIA502022
Shawnee S.F.OHIO492000
Big MeadowsVIRGINIA492025
MunsonPENNSYLVANIA472025
Shenandoa NpVIRGINIA462025

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.