BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 27 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Ovenbird In Southeastern Coastal Plain

All regionsSoutheastern Coastal PlainForest birds

Ovenbird in Southeastern Coastal Plain has surged: up 366% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

+366%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
107Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Ovenbird has surged in Southeastern Coastal Plain: up 366% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Ovenbird In Southeastern Coastal Plain Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Ovenbird in Southeastern Coastal Plain is projected to rise about 66% by 2029 — from 1.0 in 2024 to a central estimate of 1.7 (95% range 0.80–2.7). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±139.8%, with 0% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+66%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
1.7Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.80–2.795% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±139.8%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Ovenbird in Southeastern Coastal Plain is projected to rise about 66% by 2029 — from 1.0 in 2024 to a central estimate of 1.7 (95% range 0.80–2.7). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±139.8%, with 0% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20251.70.722.6
20261.70.742.6
20271.70.762.6
20281.70.782.7
20291.70.802.7

Routes In Southeastern Coastal Plain

Routes recording Ovenbird in Southeastern Coastal Plain.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Chowan RiverNORTH-CAROLINA232006
California 2NORTH-CAROLINA222024
CaliforniaNORTH-CAROLINA212013
JacksonNORTH-CAROLINA182017
RheasvilleNORTH-CAROLINA162017
Maple HillNORTH-CAROLINA142023
BeargrassNORTH-CAROLINA131981
SpeedNORTH-CAROLINA132024
WashingtonNORTH-CAROLINA132024
BranchvilleVIRGINIA132024
NewsomsVIRGINIA122024
Spring HopeNORTH-CAROLINA112024
SurryVIRGINIA112024
NewvilleVIRGINIA112024
ReelsboroNORTH-CAROLINA92019
DortchesNORTH-CAROLINA92024
Lloyd XroadsNORTH-CAROLINA82024
NewportNORTH-CAROLINA72023
WaverlyVIRGINIA71987
Dismal SwampVIRGINIA62016
MashoesNORTH-CAROLINA51975
JamesvilleNORTH-CAROLINA52024
MontagueNORTH-CAROLINA52024
Old TrapNORTH-CAROLINA52024
Green SeaSOUTH-CAROLINA52024

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.