BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 27 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Ovenbird In Southeastern Coastal Plain

All regionsSoutheastern Coastal PlainForest birds

Ovenbird in Southeastern Coastal Plain has surged: up 382% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

+382%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
107Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
59YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Ovenbird has surged in Southeastern Coastal Plain: up 382% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Ovenbird In Southeastern Coastal Plain Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Ovenbird in Southeastern Coastal Plain is projected to rise about 114% by 2030 — from 0.79 in 2025 to a central estimate of 1.7 (95% range 0.74–2.6). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±138.4%, with 0% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+114%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
1.7Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.74–2.695% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±138.4%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Ovenbird in Southeastern Coastal Plain is projected to rise about 114% by 2030 — from 0.79 in 2025 to a central estimate of 1.7 (95% range 0.74–2.6). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±138.4%, with 0% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20261.60.662.6
20271.60.682.6
20281.70.702.6
20291.70.722.6
20301.70.742.6

Routes In Southeastern Coastal Plain

Routes recording Ovenbird in Southeastern Coastal Plain.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
California 2NORTH-CAROLINA272025
Chowan RiverNORTH-CAROLINA232006
CaliforniaNORTH-CAROLINA212013
JacksonNORTH-CAROLINA182017
Spring HopeNORTH-CAROLINA172025
RheasvilleNORTH-CAROLINA162017
Maple HillNORTH-CAROLINA142023
BeargrassNORTH-CAROLINA131981
BranchvilleVIRGINIA132024
NewsomsVIRGINIA122024
NewvilleVIRGINIA112024
WashingtonNORTH-CAROLINA102025
Green SeaSOUTH-CAROLINA102025
ReelsboroNORTH-CAROLINA92019
Lloyd XroadsNORTH-CAROLINA82024
SpeedNORTH-CAROLINA72025
JamesvilleNORTH-CAROLINA72025
NewportNORTH-CAROLINA72023
WaverlyVIRGINIA71987
SurryVIRGINIA72025
DortchesNORTH-CAROLINA62025
Dismal SwampVIRGINIA62016
MashoesNORTH-CAROLINA51975
SupplyNORTH-CAROLINA52025
MontagueNORTH-CAROLINA52025

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.