BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 29 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Ovenbird In Piedmont

All regionsPiedmontForest birds

Ovenbird in Piedmont has surged: up 140% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

+140%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
141Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Ovenbird has surged in Piedmont: up 140% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Ovenbird In Piedmont Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Ovenbird in Piedmont is projected to rise about 56% by 2029 — from 2.5 in 2024 to a central estimate of 3.9 (95% range 2.5–5.2). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±52.1%, with 40% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+56%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
3.9Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
2.5–5.295% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±52.1%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Ovenbird in Piedmont is projected to rise about 56% by 2029 — from 2.5 in 2024 to a central estimate of 3.9 (95% range 2.5–5.2). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±52.1%, with 40% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20253.72.45.0
20263.72.45.0
20273.82.55.1
20283.82.55.1
20293.92.55.2

Routes In Piedmont

Routes recording Ovenbird in Piedmont.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Pw Forest PkVIRGINIA462009
Ft Pickett SVIRGINIA211995
Ft Pickett NVIRGINIA191995
GuptonNORTH-CAROLINA172024
EarltonMARYLAND152024
YoungsvilleNORTH-CAROLINA142024
HallVIRGINIA142023
Uwharrie NfNORTH-CAROLINA132001
PartlowVIRGINIA132015
ArcolaNORTH-CAROLINA122024
Church RoadVIRGINIA122024
EkloMARYLAND102018
OsmondNORTH-CAROLINA102024
SharonGEORGIA92022
BullockNORTH-CAROLINA92024
GoldstonNORTH-CAROLINA92022
BrodnaxVIRGINIA92024
Carrs StationGEORGIA82024
WylliesburgVIRGINIA82019
AppomattoxVIRGINIA82024
Van BibberMARYLAND72013
Bald FriarMARYLAND71996
Mt Gretna 2PENNSYLVANIA72022
Carters BrdgVIRGINIA72014
IrisburgVIRGINIA72023

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.