BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 29 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Ovenbird In Piedmont

All regionsPiedmontForest birds

Ovenbird in Piedmont has surged: up 152% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

+152%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
142Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
59YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Ovenbird has surged in Piedmont: up 152% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Ovenbird In Piedmont Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Ovenbird in Piedmont is projected to rise about 16% by 2030 — from 3.3 in 2025 to a central estimate of 3.9 (95% range 2.6–5.2). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±49.5%, with 40% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+16%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
3.9Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
2.6–5.295% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±49.5%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Ovenbird in Piedmont is projected to rise about 16% by 2030 — from 3.3 in 2025 to a central estimate of 3.9 (95% range 2.6–5.2). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±49.5%, with 40% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20263.72.45.0
20273.72.45.1
20283.82.55.1
20293.82.55.1
20303.92.65.2

Routes In Piedmont

Routes recording Ovenbird in Piedmont.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Pw Forest PkVIRGINIA462009
Ft Pickett SVIRGINIA211995
OsmondNORTH-CAROLINA202025
Ft Pickett NVIRGINIA191995
GuptonNORTH-CAROLINA182025
Church RoadVIRGINIA172025
ArcolaNORTH-CAROLINA162025
YoungsvilleNORTH-CAROLINA162025
BullockNORTH-CAROLINA162025
EarltonMARYLAND152024
BrodnaxVIRGINIA152025
Uwharrie NfNORTH-CAROLINA132001
PartlowVIRGINIA132015
MannboroVIRGINIA112025
MoranVIRGINIA112025
EkloMARYLAND102018
SharonGEORGIA92022
Mount AiryNORTH-CAROLINA92025
GoldstonNORTH-CAROLINA92022
Carrs StationGEORGIA82025
Big IslandVIRGINIA82025
CovesvilleVIRGINIA82025
HallVIRGINIA82025
WylliesburgVIRGINIA82019
AppomattoxVIRGINIA82024

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.