BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 30 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Ovenbird In New England / Mid-Atlantic Coast

All regionsNew England / Mid-Atlantic CoastForest birds

Ovenbird in New England / Mid-Atlantic Coast has surged: up 144% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

+144%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
159Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Ovenbird has surged in New England / Mid-Atlantic Coast: up 144% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Ovenbird In New England / Mid-Atlantic Coast Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Ovenbird in New England / Mid-Atlantic Coast is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 13 (95% range 9.8–16). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±11.4%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-4%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
13Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
9.8–1695% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±11.4%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Ovenbird in New England / Mid-Atlantic Coast is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 13 (95% range 9.8–16). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±11.4%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
2025129.415
2026129.515
2027139.616
2028139.716
2029139.816

Routes In New England / Mid-Atlantic Coast

Routes recording Ovenbird in New England / Mid-Atlantic Coast.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Spraguetown 3NEW-JERSEY892024
Ware RiverMASSACHUSETTS822022
PulaskiRHODE-ISLAND711992
PomonaNEW-JERSEY602024
WarrenCONNECTICUT592011
FriendshipNEW-JERSEY542024
Casimir Pulaski SfRHODE-ISLAND542018
BelchertownMASSACHUSETTS472024
VillasNEW-JERSEY431981
WinslowNEW-JERSEY422024
Woodstock 2CONNECTICUT352024
PrattvilleMASSACHUSETTS352019
Quonset PtRHODE-ISLAND332024
Furnace TownMARYLAND322024
Warren 2MASSACHUSETTS312024
S BarreMASSACHUSETTS302024
Estell ManorNEW-JERSEY302022
Mid HaddamCONNECTICUT292024
Lowes XrdsDELAWARE291991
BrandonVIRGINIA262024
ShannockRHODE-ISLAND252024
WalkersVIRGINIA252023
Wellfleet 2MASSACHUSETTS242024
TruhartVIRGINIA242024
Warren 2CONNECTICUT232024

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.