BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 30 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Ovenbird In New England / Mid-Atlantic Coast

All regionsNew England / Mid-Atlantic CoastForest birds

Ovenbird in New England / Mid-Atlantic Coast has surged: up 153% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

+153%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
159Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
59YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Ovenbird has surged in New England / Mid-Atlantic Coast: up 153% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Ovenbird In New England / Mid-Atlantic Coast Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Ovenbird in New England / Mid-Atlantic Coast is projected to stay roughly flat through 2030, near 13 (95% range 10.0–16). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±13.8%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-8%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
13Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
10.0–1695% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±13.8%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Ovenbird in New England / Mid-Atlantic Coast is projected to stay roughly flat through 2030, near 13 (95% range 10.0–16). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±13.8%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
2026139.616
2027139.716
2028139.816
2029139.916
20301310.016

Routes In New England / Mid-Atlantic Coast

Routes recording Ovenbird in New England / Mid-Atlantic Coast.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Spraguetown 3NEW-JERSEY922025
Ware RiverMASSACHUSETTS822022
PulaskiRHODE-ISLAND711992
PomonaNEW-JERSEY612025
WarrenCONNECTICUT592011
Casimir Pulaski SfRHODE-ISLAND542018
VillasNEW-JERSEY431981
FriendshipNEW-JERSEY422025
BelchertownMASSACHUSETTS402025
Warren 2CONNECTICUT392025
Woodstock 2CONNECTICUT382025
ShannockRHODE-ISLAND372025
BrandonVIRGINIA372025
PrattvilleMASSACHUSETTS352019
Quonset PtRHODE-ISLAND352025
Wellfleet 2MASSACHUSETTS332025
Warren 2MASSACHUSETTS322025
S BarreMASSACHUSETTS302025
Lowes XrdsDELAWARE291991
Furnace TownMARYLAND292025
WinslowNEW-JERSEY292025
UncasvilleCONNECTICUT272025
CokesburyMARYLAND272025
MarionMASSACHUSETTS262025
Estell ManorNEW-JERSEY262025

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.