BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 22 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Ovenbird In Eastern Tallgrass Prairie

All regionsEastern Tallgrass PrairieForest birds

Ovenbird in Eastern Tallgrass Prairie has surged: up 143% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

+143%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
84Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Ovenbird has surged in Eastern Tallgrass Prairie: up 143% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

Ovenbird In Eastern Tallgrass Prairie Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Ovenbird in Eastern Tallgrass Prairie is projected to rise about 16% by 2029 — from 0.10 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.11 (95% range 0.06–0.17). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±26.3%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+16%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.11Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.06–0.1795% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±26.3%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Ovenbird in Eastern Tallgrass Prairie is projected to rise about 16% by 2029 — from 0.10 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.11 (95% range 0.06–0.17). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±26.3%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.110.060.16
20260.110.060.16
20270.110.060.16
20280.110.060.16
20290.110.060.17

Routes In Eastern Tallgrass Prairie

Routes recording Ovenbird in Eastern Tallgrass Prairie.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
GeraldMISSOURI62024
BelleviewILLINOIS52016
HolcombILLINOIS41978
HuntsvilleMISSOURI32024
ThurstonNEBRASKA32023
Mt HamillIOWA22017
KahokaMISSOURI21986
TrentonMISSOURI22017
House SpringsMISSOURI22024
UnionMISSOURI21999
BarringtonILLINOIS11997
ItascaILLINOIS12002
GeneseoILLINOIS11994
SheffieldILLINOIS11991
ComptonILLINOIS11980
WayneILLINOIS12012
New LenoxILLINOIS11972
Terre HauteILLINOIS11990
BartonvilleILLINOIS12015
MonicaILLINOIS12001
PontiacILLINOIS11988
ClarksdaleILLINOIS11969
HumboldtILLINOIS11993
Mascoutah LkILLINOIS11991
JamestownILLINOIS11973

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.