BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 13 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Ovenbird In Lower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence Plain

All regionsLower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence PlainForest birds

Ovenbird in Lower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence Plain has surged: up 177% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

+177%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
80Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Ovenbird has surged in Lower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence Plain: up 177% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Ovenbird In Lower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence Plain Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Ovenbird in Lower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence Plain is projected to rise about 35% by 2029 — from 4.6 in 2024 to a central estimate of 6.2 (95% range 4.9–7.4). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±15.1%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+35%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
6.2Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
4.9–7.495% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±15.1%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Ovenbird in Lower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence Plain is projected to rise about 35% by 2029 — from 4.6 in 2024 to a central estimate of 6.2 (95% range 4.9–7.4). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±15.1%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20255.94.67.2
20266.04.77.2
20276.04.87.3
20286.14.97.4
20296.24.97.4

Routes In Lower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence Plain

Routes recording Ovenbird in Lower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence Plain.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
N WilmurtNEW-YORK451998
BalmatNEW-YORK362008
ParishvilleNEW-YORK322024
WillsboroNEW-YORK262024
PulaskiNEW-YORK242024
CatskillsNEW-YORK222015
HopkintonNEW-YORK182021
OneidaNEW-YORK172010
N Victory 2NEW-YORK152021
W ShokanNEW-YORK142019
ArgyleNEW-YORK142024
DuanesburgNEW-YORK122024
RandolphNEW-YORK122018
EllenburgNEW-YORK112006
Oriskany FlsNEW-YORK102024
North EastonNEW-YORK102024
AusterlitzNEW-YORK92024
Ballston LkNEW-YORK91995
ShaftsburyVERMONT92024
HinesburgVERMONT91994
BristolVERMONT92018
BranchportNEW-YORK82024
Alder CreekNEW-YORK82004
Cicero CtrNEW-YORK72024
PhiladelphiaNEW-YORK72024

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.