BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 13 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Ovenbird In Lower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence Plain

All regionsLower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence PlainForest birds

Ovenbird in Lower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence Plain has surged: up 177% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

+177%Since 1968
80Routes In Region
58Years

Notable Signals

long arc increasecomputed index

Ovenbird has surged in Lower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence Plain: up 177% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Ovenbird in Lower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence Plain is projected to rise about 35% by 2029 — from 4.6 in 2024 to a central estimate of 6.2 (95% range 4.9–7.4). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±15.1%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+35%Change by 2029
6.2Projected 2029 index
4.9–7.495% range
±15.1%Backtest error
19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected index95% low95% high
20255.94.67.2
20266.04.77.2
20276.04.87.3
20286.14.97.4
20296.24.97.4

Routes In Lower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence Plain

Routes recording Ovenbird in Lower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence Plain.
N WilmurtNEW-YORK451998
BalmatNEW-YORK362008
ParishvilleNEW-YORK322024
WillsboroNEW-YORK262024
PulaskiNEW-YORK242024
CatskillsNEW-YORK222015
HopkintonNEW-YORK182021
OneidaNEW-YORK172010
N Victory 2NEW-YORK152021
W ShokanNEW-YORK142019
ArgyleNEW-YORK142024
DuanesburgNEW-YORK122024
RandolphNEW-YORK122018
EllenburgNEW-YORK112006
Oriskany FlsNEW-YORK102024
North EastonNEW-YORK102024
AusterlitzNEW-YORK92024
Ballston LkNEW-YORK91995
ShaftsburyVERMONT92024
HinesburgVERMONT91994
BristolVERMONT92018
BranchportNEW-YORK82024
Alder CreekNEW-YORK82004
Cicero CtrNEW-YORK72024
PhiladelphiaNEW-YORK72024

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.