BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 13 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Ovenbird In Lower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence Plain

All regionsLower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence PlainForest birds

Ovenbird in Lower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence Plain has surged: up 159% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

+159%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
81Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
59YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Ovenbird has surged in Lower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence Plain: up 159% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Ovenbird In Lower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence Plain Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Ovenbird in Lower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence Plain is projected to rise about 50% by 2030 — from 4.1 in 2025 to a central estimate of 6.1 (95% range 4.8–7.4). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±25.2%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+50%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
6.1Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
4.8–7.495% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±25.2%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Ovenbird in Lower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence Plain is projected to rise about 50% by 2030 — from 4.1 in 2025 to a central estimate of 6.1 (95% range 4.8–7.4). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±25.2%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20265.84.57.2
20275.94.67.2
20286.04.67.3
20296.04.77.4
20306.14.87.4

Routes In Lower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence Plain

Routes recording Ovenbird in Lower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence Plain.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
N WilmurtNEW-YORK451998
ParishvilleNEW-YORK392025
BalmatNEW-YORK362008
WillsboroNEW-YORK262024
CatskillsNEW-YORK222015
PulaskiNEW-YORK222025
HopkintonNEW-YORK182021
OneidaNEW-YORK172010
N Victory 2NEW-YORK152021
W ShokanNEW-YORK142019
ArgyleNEW-YORK142024
RandolphNEW-YORK122018
DuanesburgNEW-YORK112025
Oriskany FlsNEW-YORK112025
EllenburgNEW-YORK112006
AusterlitzNEW-YORK102025
Canadice LNEW-YORK102025
HarrisvillePENNSYLVANIA102025
Ballston LkNEW-YORK91995
ShaftsburyVERMONT92025
HinesburgVERMONT91994
BranchportNEW-YORK82024
Alder CreekNEW-YORK82004
North PownalVERMONT82025
BristolVERMONT82025

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.