BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 11 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Ovenbird In Prairie Potholes

All regionsPrairie PotholesForest birds

Ovenbird in Prairie Potholes has edged down: down 21% on the route-weighted index since 1975.

-21%Since 1975TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
23Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
50YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Ovenbird in Prairie Potholes. See the full index history below.

Ovenbird In Prairie Potholes Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Ovenbird in Prairie Potholes is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 0.14 (95% range 0.01–0.26). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±389.4%, with 20% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

n/aChange by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.14Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.01–0.2695% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±389.4%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Ovenbird in Prairie Potholes is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 0.14 (95% range 0.01–0.26). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±389.4%, with 20% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.130.010.26
20260.130.010.26
20270.130.010.26
20280.140.010.26
20290.140.010.26

Routes In Prairie Potholes

Routes recording Ovenbird in Prairie Potholes.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
BadgerMINNESOTA82018
ErieMINNESOTA32017
GryglaMINNESOTA22017
Lake BronsonMINNESOTA22011
TylerMINNESOTA22013
CooperstownNORTH-DAKOTA22015
Turtle MtnsNORTH-DAKOTA22024
WashingtonIOWA11974
GarnerIOWA11987
GluekMINNESOTA11979
TenneyMINNESOTA12004
OkleeMINNESOTA12014
BeltramiMINNESOTA12016
WylieMINNESOTA12023
MidwayNEBRASKA12015
Lake GeorgeNORTH-DAKOTA11990
KemptonNORTH-DAKOTA12005
BuchananNORTH-DAKOTA12006
CarpioNORTH-DAKOTA11999
StanleyNORTH-DAKOTA12023
DenbighNORTH-DAKOTA12002
Douglas CrkNORTH-DAKOTA11984
Lane 2SOUTH-DAKOTA12007

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.