BirdAnalyst
Species · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Sora

RallidaeWetland birdsPorzana carolina

Sora has surged: up 107% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

+107%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
712RoutesSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58Years SurveyedYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

About the Sora

The Sora (Porzana carolina) is a North American member of the Rails, Gallinules & Coots (Rallidae). In this analysis it is grouped with the wetland birds.

Size
6–19 in long (15–48 cm) — a marsh-dwelling waterbird (typical for the family)
Habitat
Marshes, ponds, lakeshores and other freshwater wetlands.
Diet
Aquatic invertebrates, small fish, frogs and plant matter.
Range
Recorded on 712 Breeding Bird Survey routes across 29 states, most concentrated in the Northern Rockies.
Family
Rallidae · Wetland birds

Notable Sora TrendsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Sora has surged in surveyed states: up 107% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Sora Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Sora is projected to rise about 20% by 2029 — from 0.12 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.14 (95% range 0.06–0.22). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±49.4%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+20%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.14Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.06–0.2295% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±49.4%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Sora is projected to rise about 20% by 2029 — from 0.12 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.14 (95% range 0.06–0.22). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±49.4%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.130.060.21
20260.140.060.21
20270.140.060.21
20280.140.060.21
20290.140.060.22

Where the Sora Is Detected

BBS routes recording Sora, sized by most recent count.

Sora Population Trend by State

Sora population trend by state.
TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →Baseline yearThe first year of the smoothed window the trend is measured from. An earlier baseline means a longer record stands behind the number.Full methodology →Survey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
Alaska-27%19937
Arizonainsufficient datan/a2
California+94%197522
Colorado+77%197639
Idaho+15%197231
Illinoisinsufficient datan/a8
Indianainsufficient datan/a5
Iowa-4%19698
Kansasinsufficient datan/a3
Maineinsufficient datan/a14
Massachusettsinsufficient datan/a2
Michigan-83%197043
Minnesota-62%196965
Montana-36%197082
Nebraska-49%199013
Nevada+42%199412
New Hampshireinsufficient datan/a1
New Mexico+22%19975
New York+43%197813
North Dakota+231%196949
Ohioinsufficient datan/a3
Oregon-40%197451
Pennsylvaniainsufficient datan/a7
South Dakota+60%196943
Utah+91%199226
Vermontinsufficient datan/a4
Washington-45%198039
Wisconsin-85%196864
Wyoming+31%197251

Sora Population Trend by Region

Bird Conservation Regions are the ecological unit for trends.

Sora population trend by Bird Conservation Region.
TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →Baseline yearThe first year of the smoothed window the trend is measured from. An earlier baseline means a longer record stands behind the number.Full methodology →Survey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
Northern Pacific Rainforest-6%198622
Great Basin+122%197296
Northern Rockies-62%1970117
Prairie Potholes+147%1969106
Boreal Hardwood Transition-72%196859
Lower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence Plain-16%196915
Atlantic Northern Forest-24%198519
Southern Rockies / Colorado Plateau+178%197454
Badlands and Prairies+24%196970
Central Mixed Grass Prairie-45%199011
Eastern Tallgrass Prairie-59%196921
Prairie Hardwood Transition-79%196888

Sora Conservation Status

Our route-weighted index shows it up about 107% since 1968.

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22. Trend is a route-weighted relative-abundance index, not an absolute population.