BirdAnalyst
Species · Nebraska · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Sora Population Trend in Nebraska

All statesWetland birds

Sora in Nebraska has declined: down 45% on the route-weighted index since 1990.

-45%Since 1990TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
15Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
22YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Sora Trends in NebraskaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Sora in Nebraska. See the full index history below.

Sora Population Forecast in Nebraska

If the recent trend holds, Sora in Nebraska is projected to rise about 86% by 2030 — from 0.08 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.15 (95% range 0.00–0.50). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±64.9%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+86%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.15Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.5095% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±64.9%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Sora in Nebraska is projected to rise about 86% by 2030 — from 0.08 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.15 (95% range 0.00–0.50). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±64.9%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19802030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20260.150.000.49
20270.150.000.49
20280.150.000.49
20290.150.000.49
20300.150.000.50

Sora Survey Routes in Nebraska

Routes recording Sora in Nebraska.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Swan Lake320211996
Richland220192016
Kennedy220242008
Table120152007
Hampton120192019
Gordon120252025
Agate 2120022002
Arthur120252025
Crescent Lk119991980
Brownlee120251990
Nenzel120252019
Bassett120242019
Wheeler Co120251984
Thurston119991999
Winside119971997

Sora Population Trend in Other States

alaskaarizonacaliforniacoloradoidahoillinoisindianaiowakansasmainemassachusettsmichiganminnesotamontananevadanew-hampshirenew-mexiconew-yorknorth-dakotaohiooregonpennsylvaniasouth-dakotautahvermontwashingtonwisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.