BirdAnalyst
Species · South Dakota · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Sora Population Trend in South Dakota

All statesWetland birds

Sora in South Dakota has risen sharply: up 60% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

+60%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
43Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
52YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Sora Trends in South DakotaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Sora has risen sharply in South Dakota: up 60% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

Sora Population Forecast in South Dakota

If the recent trend holds, Sora in South Dakota is projected to fall about 24% by 2029 — from 0.77 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.59 (95% range 0.00–1.6). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±221.7%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-24%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.59Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–1.695% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±221.7%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Sora in South Dakota is projected to fall about 24% by 2029 — from 0.77 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.59 (95% range 0.00–1.6). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±221.7%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.570.001.6
20260.570.001.6
20270.580.001.6
20280.580.001.6
20290.590.001.6

Sora Survey Routes in South Dakota

Routes recording Sora in South Dakota.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Crow Creek1920191967
Howard920241972
Ottumwa820151967
White Lake720111969
Turton720192010
Broadland620101999
Gettysburg620231993
Veblen520221972
Britton520191973
Volunteer520151967
Rosebud419671967
Raymond420191968
Wilmot420241969
Geddes319721972
Laplant320111972
Lennox220041983
Volga220241970
Roswell220071972
Forbes220241968
Long Lake220191969
Custer220191991
Gorman220101995
Ardmore220191991
Lacreek220231991
Tripp120082008

Sora Population Trend in Other States

alaskaarizonacaliforniacoloradoidahoillinoisindianaiowakansasmainemassachusettsmichiganminnesotamontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-mexiconew-yorknorth-dakotaohiooregonpennsylvaniautahvermontwashingtonwisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.