BirdAnalyst
Species · Nevada · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Sora Population Trend in Nevada

All statesWetland birds

Sora in Nevada has increased: up 42% on the route-weighted index since 1994.

+42%Since 1994TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
12Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
26YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Sora Trends in NevadaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Sora in Nevada. See the full index history below.

Sora Population Forecast in Nevada

If the recent trend holds, Sora in Nevada is projected to rise about 24% by 2029 — from 0.07 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.09 (95% range 0.02–0.15). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±25.7%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+24%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.09Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.02–0.1595% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±25.7%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Sora in Nevada is projected to rise about 24% by 2029 — from 0.07 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.09 (95% range 0.02–0.15). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±25.7%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19922029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.090.020.15
20260.090.020.15
20270.090.020.15
20280.090.020.15
20290.090.020.15

Sora Survey Routes in Nevada

Routes recording Sora in Nevada.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Ranchogrande120231992
Sand Pass120102004
Virgin Creek120162007
Meadow Vally119971997
Charleston Reservoir120242024
Toiyabe Nf120032003
Ruby Valley 2120162016
Majors Place120241999
Gardnerville119961996
Fallon120051995
Gardnerville 2120182018
Hiko120232021

Sora Population Trend in Other States

alaskaarizonacaliforniacoloradoidahoillinoisindianaiowakansasmainemassachusettsmichiganminnesotamontananebraskanew-hampshirenew-mexiconew-yorknorth-dakotaohiooregonpennsylvaniasouth-dakotautahvermontwashingtonwisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.