BirdAnalyst
Species · North Dakota · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Sora Population Trend in North Dakota

All statesWetland birds

Sora in North Dakota has surged: up 231% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

+231%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
49Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Sora Trends in North DakotaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Sora has surged in North Dakota: up 231% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

Sora Population Forecast in North Dakota

If the recent trend holds, Sora in North Dakota is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 5.1 (95% range 0.80–9.4). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±68.3%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+2%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
5.1Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.80–9.495% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±68.3%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Sora in North Dakota is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 5.1 (95% range 0.80–9.4). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±68.3%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20254.90.589.2
20264.90.649.3
20275.00.699.3
20285.10.759.4
20295.10.809.4

Sora Survey Routes in North Dakota

Routes recording Sora in North Dakota.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Buchanan2420241967
Carpio2020231970
Horsehead Lk1920241980
Lakota1720091968
Wild Rose1320241982
Walcott920151971
Sheyenne Lk920241980
Braddock920221988
Lakota 2920242010
Sydney819831967
Bowesmont 2820162015
Tobacco720191979
Powers Lake720241982
Forman620241968
Emerado620241975
Danzig 2620242019
Cooperstown520241969
Regan520221971
Dunn Center520241968
Lake George420221967
Bowman420241968
Turtle Mtns420241980
Edgeley320241983
Dickinson320221971
Loraine320191982

Sora Population Trend in Other States

alaskaarizonacaliforniacoloradoidahoillinoisindianaiowakansasmainemassachusettsmichiganminnesotamontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-mexiconew-yorkohiooregonpennsylvaniasouth-dakotautahvermontwashingtonwisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.