BirdAnalyst
Species · North Dakota · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Sora Population Trend in North Dakota

All statesWetland birds

Sora in North Dakota has surged: up 184% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

+184%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
49Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Sora Trends in North DakotaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Sora has surged in North Dakota: up 184% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

Sora Population Forecast in North Dakota

If the recent trend holds, Sora in North Dakota is projected to rise about 50% by 2030 — from 3.4 in 2025 to a central estimate of 5.0 (95% range 0.76–9.3). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±68%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+50%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
5.0Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.76–9.395% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±68%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Sora in North Dakota is projected to rise about 50% by 2030 — from 3.4 in 2025 to a central estimate of 5.0 (95% range 0.76–9.3). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±68%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20264.80.559.1
20274.90.609.2
20284.90.659.2
20295.00.719.3
20305.00.769.3

Sora Survey Routes in North Dakota

Routes recording Sora in North Dakota.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Buchanan2120251967
Carpio2020231970
Lakota1720091968
Horsehead Lk1120251980
Walcott920151971
Sydney819831967
Wimbledon820251988
Braddock820231988
Bowesmont 2820162015
Lake George720231967
Tobacco720191979
Cooperstown620251969
Powers Lake620251982
Regan520251971
Dunn Center520241968
Denbigh520251968
Bowman420241968
Turtle Mtns420241980
Montpelier420251995
Danzig 2420252019
Lakota 2420252010
Edgeley320251983
Niles320251989
Loraine320191982
Carson320251999

Sora Population Trend in Other States

alaskaarizonacaliforniacoloradoidahoillinoisindianaiowakansasmainemassachusettsmichiganminnesotamontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-mexiconew-yorkohiooregonpennsylvaniasouth-dakotautahvermontwashingtonwisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.