BirdAnalyst
Species · Utah · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Sora Population Trend in Utah

All statesWetland birds

Sora in Utah has surged: up 188% on the route-weighted index since 1992.

+188%Since 1992TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
28Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
35YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Sora Trends in UtahNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Sora in Utah. See the full index history below.

Sora Population Forecast in Utah

If the recent trend holds, Sora in Utah is projected to stay roughly flat through 2030, near 0.14 (95% range 0.01–0.27). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±189.3%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+9%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.14Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.01–0.2795% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±189.3%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Sora in Utah is projected to stay roughly flat through 2030, near 0.14 (95% range 0.01–0.27). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±189.3%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19862030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20260.140.010.27
20270.140.010.27
20280.140.010.27
20290.140.010.27
20300.140.010.27

Sora Survey Routes in Utah

Routes recording Sora in Utah.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Neponset Res520181995
Promontory220082005
Goose Creek Mtn.220252019
Saleratus Cr120161996
Grizzly Rdge120232023
Dragerton119961996
Bryce Canyon120112011
Woodruff120252007
Navajo Lake120062006
Lynn120251991
Randolph120241992
Grouse Creek119861986
Vernon120011996
Soapstone119921992
Bear River120251994
M Warner Res120242023
Callao120252014
Castle Dale120102010
Gooseberry120032003
Dixie Nf119941994
Hatch120252025
Vernal120122007
Bicknell120251997
Alton120101999
Hardware Ranch119981998

Sora Population Trend in Other States

alaskaarizonacaliforniacoloradoidahoillinoisindianaiowakansasmainemassachusettsmichiganminnesotamontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-mexiconew-yorknorth-dakotaohiooregonpennsylvaniasouth-dakotavermontwashingtonwisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.