BirdAnalyst
Species · Utah · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Sora Population Trend in Utah

All statesWetland birds

Sora in Utah has surged: up 91% on the route-weighted index since 1992.

+91%Since 1992TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
26Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
34YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Sora Trends in UtahNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Sora has surged in Utah: up 91% on the route-weighted index since 1992.

Sora Population Forecast in Utah

If the recent trend holds, Sora in Utah is projected to rise about 104% by 2029 — from 0.07 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.14 (95% range 0.01–0.27). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±192.7%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+104%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.14Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.01–0.2795% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±192.7%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Sora in Utah is projected to rise about 104% by 2029 — from 0.07 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.14 (95% range 0.01–0.27). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±192.7%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19862029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.140.000.27
20260.140.000.27
20270.140.000.27
20280.140.000.27
20290.140.010.27

Sora Survey Routes in Utah

Routes recording Sora in Utah.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Neponset Res520181995
Promontory220082005
Lynn220101991
Goose Creek Mtn.220192019
Saleratus Cr120161996
Grizzly Rdge120232023
Dragerton119961996
Bryce Canyon120112011
Woodruff120242007
Navajo Lake120062006
Randolph120241992
Grouse Creek119861986
Vernon120011996
Soapstone119921992
Bear River120231994
M Warner Res120242023
Callao120242014
Castle Dale120102010
Gooseberry120032003
Dixie Nf119941994
Vernal120122007
Bicknell120071997
Alton120101999
Hardware Ranch119981998
Uintah Nf119941994

Sora Population Trend in Other States

alaskaarizonacaliforniacoloradoidahoillinoisindianaiowakansasmainemassachusettsmichiganminnesotamontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-mexiconew-yorknorth-dakotaohiooregonpennsylvaniasouth-dakotavermontwashingtonwisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.