BirdAnalyst
Species · Michigan · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Sora Population Trend in Michigan

All statesWetland birds

Sora in Michigan has collapsed: down 83% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

-83%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
43Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
47YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Sora Trends in MichiganNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Sora has collapsed in Michigan: down 83% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

Sora Population Forecast in Michigan

If the recent trend holds, Sora in Michigan is projected to stay roughly flat through 2027, near 0.02 (95% range 0.00–0.09). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±28.8%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

n/aChange by 2027TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.02Projected 2027 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.0995% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±28.8%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Sora in Michigan is projected to stay roughly flat through 2027, near 0.02 (95% range 0.00–0.09). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±28.8%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672027
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20230.030.000.09
20240.030.000.09
20250.030.000.09
20260.030.000.09
20270.020.000.09

Sora Survey Routes in Michigan

Routes recording Sora in Michigan.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Creighton219931993
Cathro220132012
Bergland119821982
Marenisco120161981
Bootjack120072007
Hungerford120132013
Chippewa Lk.120091996
Maple Grove120171997
Seney Nwr120191992
Brocky Lake120172017
Wilson119871975
Cunard120182018
Shingleton120221967
Barry S.G.A.120062006
Bear Lake120111980
Scottville119741970
Big Blue Lk120152015
Scott'S Marsh120082008
Barry S.G.A. 2120172017
Tahquamenon120132013
Skegemog Pt119861986
Big Rapids119861986
Nashville120151970
Coopersville120211985
Belding119961983

Sora Population Trend in Other States

alaskaarizonacaliforniacoloradoidahoillinoisindianaiowakansasmainemassachusettsminnesotamontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-mexiconew-yorknorth-dakotaohiooregonpennsylvaniasouth-dakotautahvermontwashingtonwisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.