Guild

Wetland Birds

84 species tracked. As a group, wetland birds are -57%Guild trendA mean-index aggregate across the species in this group — the structural direction of the guild, with individual-species noise smoothed out.Full methodology → since 1968.

Guild SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

Wetland Birds Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Wetland birds as a group is projected to fall about 27% by 2030 — from 0.81 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.59 (95% range 0.40–0.78). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±16.7%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

If the recent trend holds, Wetland birds as a group is projected to fall about 27% by 2030 — from 0.81 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.59 (95% range 0.40–0.78). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±16.7%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20260.660.470.85
20270.640.450.83
20280.630.440.82
20290.610.420.80
20300.590.400.78

Wetland Birds By State

Wetland birds group trend by state.
Guild trendA mean-index aggregate across the species in this group — the structural direction of the guild, with individual-species noise smoothed out.Full methodology →
Alaska-96%21
Connecticut-90%10
Arizona-89%16
Idaho-83%26
South Carolina-82%21
Ohio-79%11
Indiana-78%14
Colorado-75%23
Virginia-75%21
West Virginia-71%4
Georgia-70%22
Pennsylvania-67%12
Maine-66%16
Massachusetts-65%16
Vermont-61%11
Wyoming-60%20
Michigan-55%20
Rhode Island-55%8
Texas-55%42
Florida-54%39
Nebraska-52%21
Illinois-51%16
Missouri-51%12
New Hampshire-51%12
New York-48%23
California-42%39
Maryland-42%26
Mississippi-40%17
Alabama-40%33
Oregon-38%31
Iowa-36%13
Kentucky-35%9
Tennessee-34%11
Minnesota-33%27
New Mexico-31%18
South Dakota-31%24
North Carolina-30%31
Nevada-30%23
Wisconsin-27%24
Arkansas-25%15
Louisiana-25%36
Washington-15%27
Kansas-8%22
New Jersey-3%24
Delaware+35%23
Utah+36%27
North Dakota+41%28
Montana+45%22
Oklahoma+59%16

Member Species

Species in the Wetland birds guild.
TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →Baseline yearThe first year of the smoothed window the trend is measured from. An earlier baseline means a longer record stands behind the number.Full methodology →
Common TernLaridae-98%1968
Heermann's GullLaridae-97%1981
Saltmarsh SparrowPasserellidae-91%1968
Western GullLaridae-89%1970
Least TernLaridae-88%1968
Roseate TernLaridae-85%1972
Black SkimmerLaridae-85%1968
Bonaparte's GullLaridae-81%1982
Herring GullLaridae-77%1968
Pelagic CormorantPhalacrocoracidae-77%1970
King RailRallidae-75%1968
Royal TernLaridae-75%1968
Reddish EgretArdeidae-71%1968
Western GrebePodicipedidae-70%1988
Aleutian TernLaridae-69%1985
Horned GrebePodicipedidae-66%1971
Green HeronArdeidae-64%1968
Little Blue HeronArdeidae-62%1968
Tricolored BlackbirdIcteridae-60%1970
Belted KingfisherAlcedinidae-59%1968
Black-crowned Night HeronArdeidae-58%1968
Boat-tailed GrackleIcteridae-53%1968
Seaside SparrowPasserellidae-52%1968
Red-winged BlackbirdIcteridae-51%1968
Black TernLaridae-51%1968
Clapper RailRallidae-48%1968
Tricolored HeronArdeidae-46%1968
Laughing GullLaridae-42%1968
Purple GallinuleRallidae-41%1969
Glaucous GullLaridae-34%1986
American BitternArdeidae-28%1968
Snowy EgretArdeidae-23%1968
Great-tailed GrackleIcteridae-18%1969
Glossy IbisThreskiornithidae-17%1968
Rusty BlackbirdIcteridae-16%1968
White IbisThreskiornithidae-14%1968
Wood StorkCiconiidae-7%1968
Great EgretArdeidae-5%1968
Great Black-backed GullLaridae-1%1968
Western Cattle-EgretArdeidae+5%1968
Swamp SparrowPasserellidae+11%1968
Virginia RailRallidae+14%1968
American CootRallidae+15%1968
Yellow RailRallidae+24%1979
Yellow-crowned Night HeronArdeidae+35%1968
LimpkinAramidae+36%1968
Clark's GrebePodicipedidae+39%1988
AnhingaAnhingidae+40%1968
Common LoonGaviidae+43%1968
Pied-billed GrebePodicipedidae+50%1968
Caspian TernLaridae+61%1968
Great Blue HeronArdeidae+66%1968
Ridgway's RailRallidae+69%1978
Gull-billed TernLaridae+75%1968
Common GallinuleRallidae+102%1968
SoraRallidae+107%1968
Glaucous-winged GullLaridae+112%1970
Forster's TernLaridae+114%1968
Least GrebePodicipedidae+115%1972
Brandt's CormorantPhalacrocoracidae+123%1970
American DipperCinclidae+148%1970
Least BitternArdeidae+151%1968
Brown PelicanPelecanidae+156%1968
Yellow-headed BlackbirdIcteridae+159%1968
Ring-billed GullLaridae+167%1968
Double-crested CormorantPhalacrocoracidae+174%1968
Roseate SpoonbillThreskiornithidae+196%1969
Franklin's GullLaridae+217%1969
American White PelicanPelecanidae+229%1969
California GullLaridae+284%1970
Nelson's SparrowPasserellidae+302%1970
Neotropic CormorantPhalacrocoracidae+322%1971
Black-legged KittiwakeLaridae+332%1982
Pacific LoonGaviidae+416%1983
Sandwich TernLaridae+476%1979
White-faced IbisThreskiornithidae+510%1969
Short-billed GullLaridae+673%1976
Arctic TernLaridae+694%1977
Red-necked GrebePodicipedidae+739%1971
Sandhill CraneGruidae18×1968
Eared GrebePodicipedidae78×1969
Black RailRallidaen/an/a
Red-throated LoonGaviidaen/an/a
unid Black-crowned / Yellow-crowned Night HeronArdeidaen/an/a