BirdAnalyst
Species · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Ridgway's Rail

RallidaeWetland birdsRallus obsoletus

Ridgway's Rail has risen sharply: up 69% on the route-weighted index since 1978.

+69%Since 1978TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
9RoutesSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
31Years SurveyedYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

About the Ridgway's Rail

The Ridgway's Rail (Rallus obsoletus) is a North American member of the Rails, Gallinules & Coots (Rallidae). In this analysis it is grouped with the wetland birds.

Size
6–19 in long (15–48 cm) — a marsh-dwelling waterbird (typical for the family)
Habitat
Marshes, ponds, lakeshores and other freshwater wetlands.
Diet
Aquatic invertebrates, small fish, frogs and plant matter.
Range
Recorded on 9 Breeding Bird Survey routes across 3 states, most concentrated in the Sonoran and Mojave Deserts.
Family
Rallidae · Wetland birds

Notable Ridgway's Rail TrendsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Ridgway's Rail. See the full index history below.

Ridgway's Rail Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Ridgway's Rail is projected to stay roughly flat through 2028, near 0.00 (95% range 0.00–0.01). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±60.9%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

n/aChange by 2028TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.00Projected 2028 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.0195% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±60.9%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Ridgway's Rail is projected to stay roughly flat through 2028, near 0.00 (95% range 0.00–0.01). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±60.9%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19732028
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20240.000.000.01
20250.000.000.01
20260.000.000.01
20270.000.000.01
20280.000.000.01

Where the Ridgway's Rail Is Detected

BBS routes recording Ridgway's Rail, sized by most recent count.

Ridgway's Rail Population Trend by State

Ridgway's Rail population trend by state.
TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →Baseline yearThe first year of the smoothed window the trend is measured from. An earlier baseline means a longer record stands behind the number.Full methodology →Survey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
Arizona+239%19974
California-30%19784
Nevadainsufficient datan/a1

Ridgway's Rail Population Trend by Region

Bird Conservation Regions are the ecological unit for trends.

Ridgway's Rail population trend by Bird Conservation Region.
TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →Baseline yearThe first year of the smoothed window the trend is measured from. An earlier baseline means a longer record stands behind the number.Full methodology →Survey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
Sonoran and Mojave Deserts+83%19828

Ridgway's Rail Conservation Status

Our route-weighted index shows it up about 69% since 1978.

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22. Trend is a route-weighted relative-abundance index, not an absolute population.