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Species · Arizona · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Ridgway's Rail Population Trend in Arizona

All statesWetland birds

Ridgway's Rail in Arizona has surged: up 239% on the route-weighted index since 1997.

+239%Since 1997TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
4Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
22YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Ridgway's Rail Trends in ArizonaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Ridgway's Rail in Arizona. See the full index history below.

Ridgway's Rail Population Forecast in Arizona

If the recent trend holds, Ridgway's Rail in Arizona is projected to stay roughly flat through 2028, near 0.16 (95% range 0.04–0.28). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±70.1%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

n/aChange by 2028TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.16Projected 2028 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.04–0.2895% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±70.1%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Ridgway's Rail in Arizona is projected to stay roughly flat through 2028, near 0.16 (95% range 0.04–0.28). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±70.1%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19932028
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20240.150.020.27
20250.150.030.27
20260.150.030.28
20270.160.040.28
20280.160.040.28

Ridgway's Rail Survey Routes in Arizona

Routes recording Ridgway's Rail in Arizona.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Araby420221993
Cibola Lake320212016
Laguna220102010
Palo Verde 2220232023

Ridgway's Rail Population Trend in Other States

californianevada

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.