BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 33 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Ridgway's Rail In Sonoran and Mojave Deserts

All regionsSonoran and Mojave DesertsWetland birds

Ridgway's Rail in Sonoran and Mojave Deserts has surged: up 83% on the route-weighted index since 1982.

+83%Since 1982TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
8Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
30YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Ridgway's Rail has surged in Sonoran and Mojave Deserts: up 83% on the route-weighted index since 1982.

Ridgway's Rail In Sonoran and Mojave Deserts Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Ridgway's Rail in Sonoran and Mojave Deserts is projected to rise about 191% by 2028 — from 0.07 in 2023 to a central estimate of 0.20 (95% range 0.03–0.36). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±55.4%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+191%Change by 2028TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.20Projected 2028 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.03–0.3695% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±55.4%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Ridgway's Rail in Sonoran and Mojave Deserts is projected to rise about 191% by 2028 — from 0.07 in 2023 to a central estimate of 0.20 (95% range 0.03–0.36). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±55.4%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19772028
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20240.180.020.34
20250.180.020.35
20260.190.020.35
20270.190.030.35
20280.200.030.36

Routes In Sonoran and Mojave Deserts

Routes recording Ridgway's Rail in Sonoran and Mojave Deserts.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Ash MeadowsNEVADA52018
ArabyARIZONA42022
Cibola LakeARIZONA32021
LagunaARIZONA22010
Palo Verde 2ARIZONA22023
Palo VerdeCALIFORNIA12018
NilandCALIFORNIA12019
Imperial DamCALIFORNIA11991

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.