BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 33 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Ridgway's Rail In Sonoran and Mojave Deserts

All regionsSonoran and Mojave DesertsWetland birds

Ridgway's Rail in Sonoran and Mojave Deserts has surged: up 83% on the route-weighted index since 1982.

+83%Since 1982
8Routes In Region
30Years

Notable Signals

long arc increasecomputed index

Ridgway's Rail has surged in Sonoran and Mojave Deserts: up 83% on the route-weighted index since 1982.

Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Ridgway's Rail in Sonoran and Mojave Deserts is projected to rise about 191% by 2028 — from 0.07 in 2023 to a central estimate of 0.20 (95% range 0.03–0.36). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±55.4%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+191%Change by 2028
0.20Projected 2028 index
0.03–0.3695% range
±55.4%Backtest error
19772028
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected index95% low95% high
20240.180.020.34
20250.180.020.35
20260.190.020.35
20270.190.030.35
20280.200.030.36

Routes In Sonoran and Mojave Deserts

Routes recording Ridgway's Rail in Sonoran and Mojave Deserts.
Ash MeadowsNEVADA52018
ArabyARIZONA42022
Cibola LakeARIZONA32021
LagunaARIZONA22010
Palo Verde 2ARIZONA22023
Palo VerdeCALIFORNIA12018
NilandCALIFORNIA12019
Imperial DamCALIFORNIA11991

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.