BirdAnalyst
Species · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

King Rail

RallidaeWetland birdsRallus elegans

King Rail has fallen sharply: down 71% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

-71%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
109RoutesSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58Years SurveyedYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

About the King Rail

The King Rail (Rallus elegans) is a North American member of the Rails, Gallinules & Coots (Rallidae). In this analysis it is grouped with the wetland birds.

Size
6–19 in long (15–48 cm) — a marsh-dwelling waterbird (typical for the family)
Habitat
Marshes, ponds, lakeshores and other freshwater wetlands.
Diet
Aquatic invertebrates, small fish, frogs and plant matter.
Range
Recorded on 109 Breeding Bird Survey routes across 19 states, most concentrated in the Gulf Coastal Prairie.
Family
Rallidae · Wetland birds

Notable King Rail TrendsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for King Rail. See the full index history below.

King Rail Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, King Rail is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 0.00 (95% range 0.00–0.02). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±73.6%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

n/aChange by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.00Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.0295% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±73.6%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, King Rail is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 0.00 (95% range 0.00–0.02). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±73.6%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.000.000.02
20260.000.000.02
20270.000.000.02
20280.000.000.02
20290.000.000.02

Where the King Rail Is Detected

BBS routes recording King Rail, sized by most recent count.

King Rail Population Trend by State

King Rail population trend by state.
TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →Baseline yearThe first year of the smoothed window the trend is measured from. An earlier baseline means a longer record stands behind the number.Full methodology →Survey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
Alabamainsufficient datan/a7
Arkansasinsufficient datan/a5
Connecticutinsufficient datan/a1
Delawareinsufficient datan/a1
Florida-90%196826
Georgia-89%197011
Kansasinsufficient datan/a1
Louisiana-63%197018
Maryland+85%19755
Minnesotainsufficient datan/a1
Mississippiinsufficient datan/a5
New Jerseyinsufficient datan/a1
North Carolina-56%19965
Oklahomainsufficient datan/a3
South Carolinainsufficient datan/a1
Texas-70%196914
Virginiainsufficient datan/a2
West Virginiainsufficient datan/a1
Wisconsininsufficient datan/a1

King Rail Population Trend by Region

Bird Conservation Regions are the ecological unit for trends.

King Rail population trend by Bird Conservation Region.
TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →Baseline yearThe first year of the smoothed window the trend is measured from. An earlier baseline means a longer record stands behind the number.Full methodology →Survey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
Southeastern Coastal Plain-65%197027
New England / Mid-Atlantic Coast+117%19749
Peninsular Florida-91%196824
Gulf Coastal Prairie-60%196928

King Rail Conservation Status

Our route-weighted index shows it down about 71% since 1968.

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22. Trend is a route-weighted relative-abundance index, not an absolute population.