BirdAnalyst
Species · Texas · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

King Rail Population Trend in Texas

All statesWetland birds

King Rail in Texas has fallen sharply: down 70% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

-70%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
14Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
51YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable King Rail Trends in TexasNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

King Rail has fallen sharply in Texas: down 70% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

King Rail Population Forecast in Texas

If the recent trend holds, King Rail in Texas is projected to stay roughly flat through 2028, near 0.00 (95% range 0.00–0.10). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±35%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

n/aChange by 2028TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.00Projected 2028 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.1095% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±35%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, King Rail in Texas is projected to stay roughly flat through 2028, near 0.00 (95% range 0.00–0.10). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±35%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672028
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20240.010.000.11
20250.010.000.11
20260.010.000.11
20270.000.000.10
20280.000.000.10

King Rail Survey Routes in Texas

Routes recording King Rail in Texas.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Winnie320221977
Lag Atascosa119961978
Mount Zion119981994
Hinkles Fer119921992
Gainesville119891989
Indianola120081967
Chinquapin120222022
Oyster Lake120211998
Stowell120081968
Danbury120191968
Katy120231969
Moon Lake120071997
Rock Island120161967
Port Acres120231996

King Rail Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarkansasconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiakansaslouisianamarylandminnesotamississippinew-jerseynorth-carolinaoklahomasouth-carolinavirginiawest-virginiawisconsin

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.