BirdAnalyst
Species · Louisiana · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

King Rail Population Trend in Louisiana

All statesWetland birds

King Rail in Louisiana has fallen sharply: down 63% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

-63%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
18Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
46YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable King Rail Trends in LouisianaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

King Rail has fallen sharply in Louisiana: down 63% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

King Rail Population Forecast in Louisiana

If the recent trend holds, King Rail in Louisiana is projected to fall about 64% by 2029 — from 0.22 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.08 (95% range 0.00–1.0). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±167.8%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-64%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.08Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–1.095% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±167.8%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, King Rail in Louisiana is projected to fall about 64% by 2029 — from 0.22 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.08 (95% range 0.00–1.0). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±167.8%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.130.001.1
20260.120.001.1
20270.100.001.1
20280.090.001.0
20290.080.001.0

King Rail Survey Routes in Louisiana

Routes recording King Rail in Louisiana.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Ltl Chenier 21520112010
Forked Island920242009
Sabine Nwr 2820152009
Ltl Chenier720211986
Forked Island 2720112011
Kaplan420211998
Sabine Nwr320081989
Mamou219821979
Maurice120101988
Gran Chenier119821967
Creole119871967
Floyd119921992
Hackberry120081967
Ville Platte120001992
Pearl River120052005
Hackberry 2120212021
Woodlawn120142008
Esther120231994

King Rail Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarkansasconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiakansasmarylandminnesotamississippinew-jerseynorth-carolinaoklahomasouth-carolinatexasvirginiawest-virginiawisconsin

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.