BirdAnalyst
Species · Florida · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

King Rail Population Trend in Florida

All statesWetland birds

King Rail in Florida has collapsed: down 90% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

-90%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
26Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
47YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable King Rail Trends in FloridaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

King Rail has collapsed in Florida: down 90% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

King Rail Population Forecast in Florida

If the recent trend holds, King Rail in Florida is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 0.00 (95% range 0.00–0.28). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±136.2%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

n/aChange by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.00Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.2895% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±136.2%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, King Rail in Florida is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 0.00 (95% range 0.00–0.28). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±136.2%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.000.000.28
20260.000.000.28
20270.000.000.28
20280.000.000.28
20290.000.000.28

King Rail Survey Routes in Florida

Routes recording King Rail in Florida.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Tamiami619741966
Ft Lonesome419701970
Pinecrest420101966
Corbett220191988
Salvista219691969
Shawano220021987
Lake Buffum119931993
Webb120061999
Holey Land120241988
St Augustine119931967
Merritt Isl120051991
Polk City119731970
Mabel120051967
Wildernes Pk120131994
Scottsmoor120001992
Sunniland Gr119761966
Kenansville119681968
Indiantown120051972
Broward119721971
Sanderson119841984
Doctor Inlet119771977
Andytown119891974
Pennywash Cr120182018
Sandy119961996
Homestead120142003

King Rail Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarkansasconnecticutdelawaregeorgiakansaslouisianamarylandminnesotamississippinew-jerseynorth-carolinaoklahomasouth-carolinatexasvirginiawest-virginiawisconsin

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.