BirdAnalyst
Species · Georgia · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

King Rail Population Trend in Georgia

All statesWetland birds

King Rail in Georgia has collapsed: down 89% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

-89%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
11Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
19YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable King Rail Trends in GeorgiaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

King Rail has collapsed in Georgia: down 89% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

King Rail Population Forecast in Georgia

If the recent trend holds, King Rail in Georgia is projected to stay roughly flat through 2028, near 0.00 (95% range 0.00–0.10). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±527.7%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

n/aChange by 2028TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.00Projected 2028 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.1095% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±527.7%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, King Rail in Georgia is projected to stay roughly flat through 2028, near 0.00 (95% range 0.00–0.10). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±527.7%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672028
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20240.000.000.10
20250.000.000.10
20260.000.000.10
20270.000.000.10
20280.000.000.10

King Rail Survey Routes in Georgia

Routes recording King Rail in Georgia.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Grovetown120022002
Darien120171967
Fitzgerald119741970
Guyton119691969
Hawkinsville119791979
Forsyth119791979
Lincolnton119951995
Pitts119951989
White Hill120232023
Cotton119751975
Boston119841975

King Rail Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarkansasconnecticutdelawarefloridakansaslouisianamarylandminnesotamississippinew-jerseynorth-carolinaoklahomasouth-carolinatexasvirginiawest-virginiawisconsin

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.