BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 27 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

King Rail In Southeastern Coastal Plain

All regionsSoutheastern Coastal PlainWetland birds

King Rail in Southeastern Coastal Plain has fallen sharply: down 65% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

-65%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
27Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
38YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for King Rail in Southeastern Coastal Plain. See the full index history below.

Forecast

If the recent trend holds, King Rail in Southeastern Coastal Plain is projected to stay roughly flat through 2028, near 0.01 (95% range 0.00–0.02). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±38.8%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

n/aChange by 2028TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.01Projected 2028 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.0295% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±38.8%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, King Rail in Southeastern Coastal Plain is projected to stay roughly flat through 2028, near 0.01 (95% range 0.00–0.02). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±38.8%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672028
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20240.010.000.02
20250.010.000.02
20260.010.000.02
20270.010.000.02
20280.010.000.02

Routes In Southeastern Coastal Plain

Routes recording King Rail in Southeastern Coastal Plain.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Chacaloochee BayALABAMA32011
CalebeeALABAMA22002
WalthallMISSISSIPPI21972
PinewoodSOUTH-CAROLINA22009
PungoVIRGINIA22011
Dauphin IsALABAMA11989
Alabama PtALABAMA11988
Dauphin Is 2ALABAMA11991
St. ElmoALABAMA12000
SandersonFLORIDA11984
Doctor InletFLORIDA11977
DarienGEORGIA12017
FitzgeraldGEORGIA11974
GuytonGEORGIA11969
HawkinsvilleGEORGIA11979
CottonGEORGIA11975
PittsGEORGIA11995
BostonGEORGIA11984
White HillGEORGIA12023
Pearl RiverLOUISIANA12005
CorinthMISSISSIPPI11976
LatimerMISSISSIPPI12016
MerrimonNORTH-CAROLINA11980
SupplyNORTH-CAROLINA12011
HertfordNORTH-CAROLINA11997

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.