BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 31 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

King Rail In Peninsular Florida

All regionsPeninsular FloridaWetland birds

King Rail in Peninsular Florida has collapsed: down 91% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

-91%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
24Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
45YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

King Rail has collapsed in Peninsular Florida: down 91% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Forecast

If the recent trend holds, King Rail in Peninsular Florida is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 0.00 (95% range 0.00–0.50). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±217.7%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

n/aChange by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.00Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.5095% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±217.7%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, King Rail in Peninsular Florida is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 0.00 (95% range 0.00–0.50). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±217.7%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.000.000.50
20260.000.000.50
20270.000.000.50
20280.000.000.50
20290.000.000.50

Routes In Peninsular Florida

Routes recording King Rail in Peninsular Florida.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
TamiamiFLORIDA61974
Ft LonesomeFLORIDA41970
PinecrestFLORIDA42010
SalvistaFLORIDA21969
ShawanoFLORIDA22002
CorbettFLORIDA22019
St AugustineFLORIDA11993
Polk CityFLORIDA11973
MabelFLORIDA12005
ScottsmoorFLORIDA12000
Sunniland GrFLORIDA11976
KenansvilleFLORIDA11968
IndiantownFLORIDA12005
BrowardFLORIDA11972
AndytownFLORIDA11989
Pennywash CrFLORIDA12018
SandyFLORIDA11996
HomesteadFLORIDA12014
PalmdaleFLORIDA12005
Lake BuffumFLORIDA11993
WebbFLORIDA12006
Holey LandFLORIDA12024
Merritt IslFLORIDA12005
Wildernes PkFLORIDA12013

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.