BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 37 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

King Rail In Gulf Coastal Prairie

All regionsGulf Coastal PrairieWetland birds

King Rail in Gulf Coastal Prairie has fallen sharply: down 60% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

-60%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
28Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
56YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

King Rail has fallen sharply in Gulf Coastal Prairie: down 60% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

Forecast

If the recent trend holds, King Rail in Gulf Coastal Prairie is projected to fall about 51% by 2029 — from 0.43 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.21 (95% range 0.00–2.6). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±106.8%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-51%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.21Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–2.695% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±106.8%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, King Rail in Gulf Coastal Prairie is projected to fall about 51% by 2029 — from 0.43 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.21 (95% range 0.00–2.6). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±106.8%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.340.002.7
20260.300.002.7
20270.270.002.7
20280.240.002.6
20290.210.002.6

Routes In Gulf Coastal Prairie

Routes recording King Rail in Gulf Coastal Prairie.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Ltl Chenier 2LOUISIANA152011
Forked IslandLOUISIANA92024
Sabine Nwr 2LOUISIANA82015
Ltl ChenierLOUISIANA72021
Forked Island 2LOUISIANA72011
KaplanLOUISIANA42021
Sabine NwrLOUISIANA32008
WinnieTEXAS32022
MamouLOUISIANA21982
Gran ChenierLOUISIANA11982
CreoleLOUISIANA11987
HackberryLOUISIANA12008
EstherLOUISIANA12023
MauriceLOUISIANA12010
Ville PlatteLOUISIANA12000
Hackberry 2LOUISIANA12021
WoodlawnLOUISIANA12014
Lag AtascosaTEXAS11996
Hinkles FerTEXAS11992
IndianolaTEXAS12008
StowellTEXAS12008
DanburyTEXAS12019
KatyTEXAS12023
Rock IslandTEXAS12016
ChinquapinTEXAS12022

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.