BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 30 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

King Rail In New England / Mid-Atlantic Coast

All regionsNew England / Mid-Atlantic CoastWetland birds

King Rail in New England / Mid-Atlantic Coast has surged: up 117% on the route-weighted index since 1974.

+117%Since 1974TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
9Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
30YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for King Rail in New England / Mid-Atlantic Coast. See the full index history below.

King Rail In New England / Mid-Atlantic Coast Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, King Rail in New England / Mid-Atlantic Coast is projected to fall about 57% by 2029 — from 0.05 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.02 (95% range 0.00–0.04). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±46.7%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-57%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.02Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.0495% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±46.7%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, King Rail in New England / Mid-Atlantic Coast is projected to fall about 57% by 2029 — from 0.05 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.02 (95% range 0.00–0.04). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±46.7%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19712029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.020.000.04
20260.020.000.04
20270.020.000.04
20280.020.000.04
20290.020.000.04

Routes In New England / Mid-Atlantic Coast

Routes recording King Rail in New England / Mid-Atlantic Coast.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
HongaMARYLAND22024
MadisonMARYLAND22024
WestbrookCONNECTICUT11999
MiltonDELAWARE11971
MelitotaMARYLAND11974
Golden HillMARYLAND11975
CokesburyMARYLAND11973
Six PointsNEW-JERSEY11997
Chincoteag WVIRGINIA11992

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.