BirdAnalyst
Guild · Oklahoma · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Wetland Birds In Oklahoma

All statesOklahoma

12 species in this guild. As a group they are +83%Guild trendA mean-index aggregate across the species in this group — the structural direction of the guild, with individual-species noise smoothed out.Full methodology → since 1969.

Guild SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for wetland birds in Oklahoma. See the full index history below.

Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Wetland birds in Oklahoma is projected to fall about 38% by 2029 — from 2.2 in 2024 to a central estimate of 1.4 (95% range 0.00–4.2). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±135.2%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-38%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
1.4Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–4.295% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±135.2%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Wetland birds in Oklahoma is projected to fall about 38% by 2029 — from 2.2 in 2024 to a central estimate of 1.4 (95% range 0.00–4.2). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±135.2%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20251.40.004.3
20261.40.004.3
20271.40.004.2
20281.40.004.2
20291.40.004.2

Member Species In Oklahoma

Wetland birds species in Oklahoma.
TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
Little Blue HeronArdeidae-97%
Green HeronArdeidae-79%
American BitternArdeidae-72%
Black-crowned Night HeronArdeidae-67%
Yellow-crowned Night HeronArdeidae-54%
Snowy EgretArdeidae-48%
Great EgretArdeidae-6%
Least TernLaridae+85%
Great Blue HeronArdeidae+88%
American CootRallidae+134%
Double-crested CormorantPhalacrocoracidae+720%
Western Cattle-EgretArdeidae31×

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.