BirdAnalyst
Species · Oklahoma · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Green Heron Population Trend in Oklahoma

All statesWetland birds

Green Heron in Oklahoma has collapsed: down 79% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

-79%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
63Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Green Heron Trends in OklahomaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Green Heron has collapsed in Oklahoma: down 79% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

Green Heron Population Forecast in Oklahoma

If the recent trend holds, Green Heron in Oklahoma is projected to fall about 100% by 2029 — from 0.21 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.00 (95% range 0.00–0.66). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±133.2%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-100%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.00Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.6695% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±133.2%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Green Heron in Oklahoma is projected to fall about 100% by 2029 — from 0.21 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.00 (95% range 0.00–0.66). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±133.2%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.000.000.66
20260.000.000.66
20270.000.000.66
20280.000.000.66
20290.000.000.66

Green Heron Survey Routes in Oklahoma

Routes recording Green Heron in Oklahoma.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Goodwater920211995
Mcalester519911967
Indianola420231968
Verden420171967
Matoy419941993
Reed319961972
Barnsdall319771967
Sandbluff319951992
Ft Sill East319941994
Ardmore220061969
Canadian220171968
Holdenville220241967
Noble220221967
Welch220241967
Bartlesville220041967
Douglas220091970
Lookout220221971
Wainwright220101993
Woodward220171998
Phroso120242005
Big Cedar120231967
Blanco120021967
Phillips120081968
Mill Creek120161967
Loco119841967

Green Heron Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarizonaarkansascaliforniaconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourinebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsin

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.