BirdAnalyst
Species · Kentucky · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Green Heron Population Trend in Kentucky

All statesWetland birds

Green Heron in Kentucky has fallen sharply: down 74% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

-74%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
60Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Green Heron Trends in KentuckyNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Green Heron has fallen sharply in Kentucky: down 74% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Green Heron Population Forecast in Kentucky

If the recent trend holds, Green Heron in Kentucky is projected to fall about 62% by 2029 — from 0.50 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.19 (95% range 0.00–0.78). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±32%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-62%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.19Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.7895% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±32%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Green Heron in Kentucky is projected to fall about 62% by 2029 — from 0.50 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.19 (95% range 0.00–0.78). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±32%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.310.000.90
20260.280.000.86
20270.250.000.83
20280.220.000.81
20290.190.000.78

Green Heron Survey Routes in Kentucky

Routes recording Green Heron in Kentucky.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Daniel Boone519841966
Iron Bridge419881966
Plum320231966
East Union320171966
Gesling319731973
Campton319821979
Shiloh220151968
Sulphur Lick220181966
Sunnybrook220171974
Monticello220221998
Bardwell220031967
Kings Mtn220221966
Johnsonville220181966
Hudson220181966
Eastview220241967
Drakesboro219931971
Shelbyville219781966
Goshen219981966
Pleasurevill220241979
Levee 2220192008
Hodgenville 2220232008
Lebanon Junction220242001
Cumberlnd Gp120041967
Lovelacevile120241967
Canton120231967

Green Heron Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarizonaarkansascaliforniaconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaillinoisindianaiowakansaslouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourinebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsin

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.