BirdAnalyst
Species · Mississippi · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Green Heron Population Trend in Mississippi

All statesWetland birds

Green Heron in Mississippi has held roughly steady: up 4% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

+4%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
61Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Green Heron Trends in MississippiNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Green Heron in Mississippi. See the full index history below.

Green Heron Population Forecast in Mississippi

If the recent trend holds, Green Heron in Mississippi is projected to fall about 51% by 2029 — from 0.90 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.44 (95% range 0.00–1.3). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±69.7%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-51%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.44Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–1.395% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±69.7%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Green Heron in Mississippi is projected to fall about 51% by 2029 — from 0.90 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.44 (95% range 0.00–1.3). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±69.7%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.510.001.4
20260.490.001.4
20270.480.001.3
20280.460.001.3
20290.440.001.3

Green Heron Survey Routes in Mississippi

Routes recording Green Heron in Mississippi.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Macon720241968
Eagle Lake620242012
Olive Branch520011970
Okatibbee L.520081995
Poplarville419781972
Duffee420011973
Fontainbleau419771976
Benndale320221974
Lake Mary219901974
Isola220221973
Walthall219871970
Aberdeen220151970
Panther Swamp Nwr220162016
Holly Springs220222012
Trace North220092008
Sandy Creek220002000
Tippo220121996
Tallahatchie220181996
Trace Attala220182018
Latimer220181990
Star220182018
Olive Branch 2220222016
Embry220161988
Necaise220221982
Scooba 2219871983

Green Heron Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarizonaarkansascaliforniaconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamissourinebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsin

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.