BirdAnalyst
Species · Virginia · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Green Heron Population Trend in Virginia

All statesWetland birds

Green Heron in Virginia has fallen sharply: down 62% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

-62%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
66Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Green Heron Trends in VirginiaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Green Heron has fallen sharply in Virginia: down 62% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Green Heron Population Forecast in Virginia

If the recent trend holds, Green Heron in Virginia is projected to fall about 32% by 2029 — from 0.21 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.14 (95% range 0.00–0.50). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±9.8%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-32%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.14Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.5095% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±9.8%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Green Heron in Virginia is projected to fall about 32% by 2029 — from 0.21 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.14 (95% range 0.00–0.50). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±9.8%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.200.000.56
20260.180.000.55
20270.170.000.53
20280.160.000.52
20290.140.000.50

Green Heron Survey Routes in Virginia

Routes recording Green Heron in Virginia.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Backbay819741966
Partlow420061980
Port Royal320191977
Hall320141967
Newville320241988
Isom220121969
Covington220241977
Big Island219961968
Waverly219871979
Surry220181978
Moran220052001
Blacksburg220231988
Carters Brdg 2220232017
Brandon220101999
Star Tannery120111977
Taylorstown120071967
W Augusta120191970
Churchville120181966
Stanley120231966
Tryme120141979
Edinburg120211968
Jerome120211973
Great Falls119671966
David120131969
Putnam120151971

Green Heron Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarizonaarkansascaliforniaconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourinebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasvermontwashingtonwest-virginiawisconsin

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.