BirdAnalyst
Species · West Virginia · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Green Heron Population Trend in West Virginia

All statesWetland birds

Green Heron in West Virginia has collapsed: down 85% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

-85%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
54Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Green Heron Trends in West VirginiaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Green Heron has collapsed in West Virginia: down 85% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Green Heron Population Forecast in West Virginia

If the recent trend holds, Green Heron in West Virginia is projected to fall about 78% by 2029 — from 0.08 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.02 (95% range 0.00–0.34). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±66.5%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-78%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.02Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.3495% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±66.5%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Green Heron in West Virginia is projected to fall about 78% by 2029 — from 0.08 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.02 (95% range 0.00–0.34). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±66.5%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.060.000.38
20260.050.000.37
20270.040.000.36
20280.030.000.35
20290.020.000.34

Green Heron Survey Routes in West Virginia

Routes recording Green Heron in West Virginia.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Fayetteville319951990
Yellow Spg320221976
Glade Run219991999
Spencer220231990
Three Forks220151979
Lost River220142013
Green Bank220211979
Mo Of Seneca220171969
Mt Storm219751975
Rio219891974
Hix120211977
Smoot120221980
Pedro120171979
Stollings120212007
Bramwell120221982
Ghent120061979
Hanover120241989
Clear Creek120011988
Welch120022002
Pt Pleasant120231974
Arlee119791966
Hubbardstown120041967
Clendenin120061986
Nicut120221988
Meadland120031999

Green Heron Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarizonaarkansascaliforniaconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourinebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasvermontvirginiawashingtonwisconsin

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.