BirdAnalyst
Species · Arkansas · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Green Heron Population Trend in Arkansas

All statesWetland birds

Green Heron in Arkansas has fallen sharply: down 62% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

-62%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
51Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Green Heron Trends in ArkansasNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Green Heron has fallen sharply in Arkansas: down 62% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

Green Heron Population Forecast in Arkansas

If the recent trend holds, Green Heron in Arkansas is projected to fall about 35% by 2030 — from 0.54 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.35 (95% range 0.00–1.1). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±74.4%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-35%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.35Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–1.195% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±74.4%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Green Heron in Arkansas is projected to fall about 35% by 2030 — from 0.54 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.35 (95% range 0.00–1.1). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±74.4%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20260.450.001.2
20270.420.001.1
20280.400.001.1
20290.370.001.1
20300.350.001.1

Green Heron Survey Routes in Arkansas

Routes recording Green Heron in Arkansas.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
South Bend620251970
Blakely619991968
Augusta320011969
Massard320151967
Maynard320251967
Russell320212010
Four Lakes320012000
Crows219901968
Poyen220011967
Saffell220191972
Stark220231967
Coal Hill220231970
Fulton220181968
England220252010
Ulm220081986
Nance220251994
Old Milo120241967
Eudora120161968
Ramsey119971967
Locust Bayou120231967
Stamps120241967
Hope120241967
Ashdown120151967
Hughes120111974
West Tyler119831972

Green Heron Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarizonacaliforniaconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourinebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsin

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.