BirdAnalyst
Species · Indiana · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Green Heron Population Trend in Indiana

All statesWetland birds

Green Heron in Indiana has fallen sharply: down 55% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

-55%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
62Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
59YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Green Heron Trends in IndianaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Green Heron has fallen sharply in Indiana: down 55% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Green Heron Population Forecast in Indiana

If the recent trend holds, Green Heron in Indiana is projected to fall about 33% by 2030 — from 0.50 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.33 (95% range 0.00–0.69). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±32.4%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-33%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.33Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.6995% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±32.4%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Green Heron in Indiana is projected to fall about 33% by 2030 — from 0.50 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.33 (95% range 0.00–0.69). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±32.4%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20260.360.000.72
20270.350.000.72
20280.350.000.71
20290.340.000.70
20300.330.000.69

Green Heron Survey Routes in Indiana

Routes recording Green Heron in Indiana.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Gary519951980
Swayzee420252002
Monticello320251986
Corydon320241966
Portage320042000
South Bend219901970
Columbia Cty220221982
Ellis220211966
Tipton219921967
Brazil220241966
Belmont220231983
Shelbyville219881986
Brookville220211966
Evansville220191966
Wallace220171999
Witts Station220242000
Newberry220192000
Cyprss220102002
Packertown 2220252008
Hebron120251967
Knox120251981
Kewanna120091981
Middlebury120251990
Packertown120041971
Fowler120191966

Green Heron Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarizonaarkansascaliforniaconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaillinoisiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourinebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsin

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.