BirdAnalyst
Species · North Carolina · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Green Heron Population Trend in North Carolina

All statesWetland birds

Green Heron in North Carolina has fallen sharply: down 53% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

-53%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
95Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
59YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Green Heron Trends in North CarolinaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Green Heron has fallen sharply in North Carolina: down 53% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Green Heron Population Forecast in North Carolina

If the recent trend holds, Green Heron in North Carolina is projected to rise about 17% by 2030 — from 0.36 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.42 (95% range 0.00–1.3). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±46.6%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+17%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.42Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–1.395% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±46.6%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Green Heron in North Carolina is projected to rise about 17% by 2030 — from 0.36 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.42 (95% range 0.00–1.3). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±46.6%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20260.510.001.4
20270.480.001.4
20280.460.001.3
20290.440.001.3
20300.420.001.3

Green Heron Survey Routes in North Carolina

Routes recording Green Heron in North Carolina.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Beargrass1019811966
Grandy719751971
Jarvisburg619991999
Youngsville520231972
Jamesville420251983
Mount Airy420222022
Speed320251968
Mooresville319961968
Call320161969
Mattamuskeet320211998
Bethel320252002
Fairmont219811970
Arapahoe219951974
Rose220181974
Madison219851976
Rowland220191990
Mooresville 2220142014
Roseboro220171996
Rhems219931991
Genoa220251990
Sheffield220131991
Dortches220251990
Monticello220231990
Osmond220252002
Rheasville220172013

Green Heron Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarizonaarkansascaliforniaconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourinebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsin

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.