BirdAnalyst
Species · North Carolina · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Green Heron Population Trend in North Carolina

All statesWetland birds

Green Heron in North Carolina has declined: down 50% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

-50%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
95Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Green Heron Trends in North CarolinaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Green Heron in North Carolina. See the full index history below.

Green Heron Population Forecast in North Carolina

If the recent trend holds, Green Heron in North Carolina is projected to rise about 14% by 2029 — from 0.40 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.46 (95% range 0.00–1.3). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±45%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+14%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.46Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–1.395% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±45%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Green Heron in North Carolina is projected to rise about 14% by 2029 — from 0.40 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.46 (95% range 0.00–1.3). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±45%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.540.001.4
20260.520.001.4
20270.500.001.4
20280.480.001.4
20290.460.001.3

Green Heron Survey Routes in North Carolina

Routes recording Green Heron in North Carolina.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Beargrass1019811966
Grandy719751971
Jarvisburg619991999
Youngsville520231972
Dortches420241990
Mount Airy420222022
Myrtle Grove320241966
Speed320241968
Mooresville319961968
Call320161969
Jamesville320241983
California 2320242015
Montague320241992
Mattamuskeet320211998
Fairmont219811970
Arapahoe219951974
Rose220181974
Madison219851976
Rowland220191990
Mooresville 2220142014
Roseboro220171996
Rhems219931991
Sheffield220131991
Monticello220231990
Bullock220242010

Green Heron Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarizonaarkansascaliforniaconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourinebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsin

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.