BirdAnalyst
Species · Florida · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Green Heron Population Trend in Florida

All statesWetland birds

Green Heron in Florida has fallen sharply: down 65% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

-65%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
117Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
59YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Green Heron Trends in FloridaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Green Heron has fallen sharply in Florida: down 65% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Green Heron Population Forecast in Florida

If the recent trend holds, Green Heron in Florida is projected to fall about 44% by 2030 — from 0.89 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.50 (95% range 0.00–1.7). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±34.3%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-44%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.50Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–1.795% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±34.3%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Green Heron in Florida is projected to fall about 44% by 2030 — from 0.89 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.50 (95% range 0.00–1.7). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±34.3%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20260.670.001.9
20270.630.001.8
20280.580.001.8
20290.540.001.8
20300.500.001.7

Green Heron Survey Routes in Florida

Routes recording Green Heron in Florida.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
St Lucie1520251987
Tamiami1019741966
Broward919731966
Shawano920021987
Clewiston920232015
Mt. Olive920092002
Andytown819981974
Boca Raton619941968
Pennywash Cr620241987
Aripeka620251987
Weaver Stn620191987
Holey Land620251987
Ft Waltn Bch520111966
Port St Joe520111968
Winter Gardn520181988
Oak Grove420111967
Miller Xrds420181987
Deanville420191987
Lovedale420111987
Dale Mabry319881966
Sunniland Gr320211966
Salvista319791967
Plantation K320041966
Key Largo319911987
Devils Gardn320251987

Green Heron Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarizonaarkansascaliforniaconnecticutdelawaregeorgiaillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourinebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsin

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.