BirdAnalyst
Species · Ohio · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Green Heron Population Trend in Ohio

All statesWetland birds

Green Heron in Ohio has declined: down 47% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

-47%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
78Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
59YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Green Heron Trends in OhioNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Green Heron in Ohio. See the full index history below.

Green Heron Population Forecast in Ohio

If the recent trend holds, Green Heron in Ohio is projected to fall about 78% by 2030 — from 0.50 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.11 (95% range 0.00–0.34). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±68.7%, with 40% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-78%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.11Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.3495% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±68.7%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Green Heron in Ohio is projected to fall about 78% by 2030 — from 0.50 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.11 (95% range 0.00–0.34). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±68.7%, with 40% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20260.140.000.38
20270.140.000.37
20280.130.000.36
20290.120.000.35
20300.110.000.34

Green Heron Survey Routes in Ohio

Routes recording Green Heron in Ohio.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Kenton420131967
Maysville419941992
Lockport320251969
Pittsfield320231994
Garrettsvile319901966
Hiram320251992
Stonecreek320251996
Kingsway220251966
Graytown219781966
Troy219661966
Cosmos219841984
New Somerset219881972
Harveysburg219961967
Ray220241993
Greasy Ridge219901966
Limestone219911991
Valley City220141999
Enon220191984
Napoleon120121978
Kunkle120251997
Bloomville120251996
N Baltimore120191976
Peru119741966
Bismark119951976
Wayland120151992

Green Heron Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarizonaarkansascaliforniaconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourinebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaoklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsin

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.