BirdAnalyst
Species · Ohio · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Green Heron Population Trend in Ohio

All statesWetland birds

Green Heron in Ohio has fallen sharply: down 57% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

-57%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
78Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Green Heron Trends in OhioNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Green Heron has fallen sharply in Ohio: down 57% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Green Heron Population Forecast in Ohio

If the recent trend holds, Green Heron in Ohio is projected to fall about 58% by 2029 — from 0.21 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.09 (95% range 0.00–0.31). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±67.2%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-58%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.09Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.3195% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±67.2%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Green Heron in Ohio is projected to fall about 58% by 2029 — from 0.21 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.09 (95% range 0.00–0.31). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±67.2%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.130.000.34
20260.120.000.33
20270.110.000.33
20280.100.000.32
20290.090.000.31

Green Heron Survey Routes in Ohio

Routes recording Green Heron in Ohio.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Kenton420131967
Maysville419941992
Pittsfield320231994
Garrettsvile319901966
Lenox320241967
Graytown219781966
Troy219661966
Cosmos219841984
Lucerne220231998
New Somerset219881972
Harveysburg219961967
Ray220241993
Greasy Ridge219901966
Limestone219911991
Valley City220141999
Enon220191984
Lockport120071969
Napoleon120121978
Kunkle120211997
Bloomville120221996
Kingsway120221966
N Baltimore120191976
Peru119741966
Bismark119951976
Wayland120151992

Green Heron Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarizonaarkansascaliforniaconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourinebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaoklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsin

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.