BirdAnalyst
Species · New York · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Green Heron Population Trend in New York

All statesWetland birds

Green Heron in New York has edged down: down 22% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

-22%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
106Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
59YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Green Heron Trends in New YorkNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Green Heron in New York. See the full index history below.

Green Heron Population Forecast in New York

If the recent trend holds, Green Heron in New York is projected to fall about 46% by 2030 — from 0.35 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.19 (95% range 0.00–0.47). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±19.7%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-46%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.19Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.4795% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±19.7%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Green Heron in New York is projected to fall about 46% by 2030 — from 0.35 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.19 (95% range 0.00–0.47). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±19.7%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20260.220.000.50
20270.210.000.49
20280.200.000.48
20290.200.000.48
20300.190.000.47

Green Heron Survey Routes in New York

Routes recording Green Heron in New York.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Pulaski420191968
Ghent320081968
Nashville320181967
Oneida320091969
N Victory319691967
Jones Beach219941967
Highland220091982
Warwick219741968
Rifton219861970
Westbrookvle220171966
Mt Hope219811967
Austerlitz220251966
Durham219761968
Medusa220211968
Cooperstown219711971
Swain220071968
Orleans220221967
Mt Morris220191975
Hamburg220251967
Cherry Hill220131968
St Johnsburg220161968
E Youngstown220221968
N Victory 2220211979
Watertown220111967
Alder Creek220041976

Green Heron Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarizonaarkansascaliforniaconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourinebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsin

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.