BirdAnalyst
Species · Texas · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Green Heron Population Trend in Texas

All statesWetland birds

Green Heron in Texas has fallen sharply: down 52% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

-52%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
170Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Green Heron Trends in TexasNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Green Heron has fallen sharply in Texas: down 52% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

Green Heron Population Forecast in Texas

If the recent trend holds, Green Heron in Texas is projected to fall about 45% by 2029 — from 0.66 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.36 (95% range 0.00–0.85). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±15.8%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-45%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.36Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.8595% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±15.8%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Green Heron in Texas is projected to fall about 45% by 2029 — from 0.66 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.36 (95% range 0.00–0.85). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±15.8%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.430.000.93
20260.420.000.91
20270.400.000.89
20280.380.000.87
20290.360.000.85

Green Heron Survey Routes in Texas

Routes recording Green Heron in Texas.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Circle919771977
Winnie820241967
Chandler720041968
Indianola620241973
Chinquapin620241995
Lag Atascosa520241974
Casa Piedra519921992
Hinkles Fer420211972
Katy420241968
Muldoon420241970
Oak Grove419991967
Catarina 2420112011
Manor420242017
Loyola Beach420091994
Oyster Lake420241995
Burton420241996
Easton420121994
Claytonville420011995
Zapata319831969
George West320221973
Lone Oak320211969
New Waverly320031969
Caledonia320221969
Massey Lake320231970
Morton320241970

Green Heron Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarizonaarkansascaliforniaconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourinebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseevermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsin

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.