BirdAnalyst
Species · Texas · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Green Heron Population Trend in Texas

All statesWetland birds

Green Heron in Texas has declined: down 47% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

-47%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
170Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Green Heron Trends in TexasNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Green Heron in Texas. See the full index history below.

Green Heron Population Forecast in Texas

If the recent trend holds, Green Heron in Texas is projected to fall about 41% by 2030 — from 0.60 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.36 (95% range 0.00–0.85). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±20.4%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-41%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.36Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.8595% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±20.4%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Green Heron in Texas is projected to fall about 41% by 2030 — from 0.60 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.36 (95% range 0.00–0.85). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±20.4%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20260.430.000.92
20270.410.000.90
20280.390.000.88
20290.380.000.86
20300.360.000.85

Green Heron Survey Routes in Texas

Routes recording Green Heron in Texas.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Rock Island1020251967
Winnie920251967
Circle919771977
Stowell820251968
Katy720251968
Chandler720041968
Indianola620241973
L. Atascosa Nwr620252003
Lag Atascosa520251974
Albany520251979
Hearne520251998
Casa Piedra519921992
Hinkles Fer420211972
Muldoon420241970
Oak Grove419991967
Catarina 2420112011
Manor420242017
Loyola Beach420091994
Burton420241996
Easton420121994
Claytonville420011995
Zapata319831969
George West320221973
Lone Oak320211969
New Waverly320031969

Green Heron Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarizonaarkansascaliforniaconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourinebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseevermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsin

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.