BirdAnalyst
Species · Minnesota · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Green Heron Population Trend in Minnesota

All statesWetland birds

Green Heron in Minnesota has edged down: down 14% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

-14%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
62Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Green Heron Trends in MinnesotaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Green Heron in Minnesota. See the full index history below.

Green Heron Population Forecast in Minnesota

If the recent trend holds, Green Heron in Minnesota is projected to fall about 26% by 2029 — from 0.31 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.23 (95% range 0.00–0.52). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±75%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-26%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.23Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.5295% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±75%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Green Heron in Minnesota is projected to fall about 26% by 2029 — from 0.31 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.23 (95% range 0.00–0.52). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±75%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.240.000.53
20260.240.000.53
20270.230.000.53
20280.230.000.52
20290.230.000.52

Green Heron Survey Routes in Minnesota

Routes recording Green Heron in Minnesota.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Sherburne Nr420241991
Big Stone420111996
Chokio320051989
Le Center320231997
Millville219861971
Courtland220231978
Redwood Fall219801980
St Stephen220161967
Wigwam Bay220231970
Tenney219961978
Caledonia 2220222018
Debs220241994
Lake Bronson219791979
Franklin220212021
Cass Lake219831982
Brook Park220242003
Mcgregor220001998
Brainerd220111993
Money Creek120141970
Chatfield119881977
Hartland120121968
Huntley120171982
Chandler120231971
Ash Creek120191980
Lakeville120181968

Green Heron Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarizonaarkansascaliforniaconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganmississippimissourinebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsin

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.