BirdAnalyst
Species · Oregon · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Green Heron Population Trend in Oregon

All statesWetland birds

Green Heron in Oregon has collapsed: down 86% on the route-weighted index since 1971.

-86%Since 1971TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
26Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
48YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Green Heron Trends in OregonNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Green Heron has collapsed in Oregon: down 86% on the route-weighted index since 1971.

Green Heron Population Forecast in Oregon

If the recent trend holds, Green Heron in Oregon is projected to stay roughly flat through 2028, near 0.01 (95% range 0.00–0.10). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±44.1%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

n/aChange by 2028TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.01Projected 2028 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.1095% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±44.1%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Green Heron in Oregon is projected to stay roughly flat through 2028, near 0.01 (95% range 0.00–0.10). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±44.1%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19692028
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20240.010.000.11
20250.010.000.11
20260.010.000.10
20270.010.000.10
20280.010.000.10

Green Heron Survey Routes in Oregon

Routes recording Green Heron in Oregon.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Tualatin220121986
Winberry219981970
Hazel Camp220111975
Emigrant Lk220011974
Salem220231993
Glasgow220051986
Salado120071994
Hauser119851970
Umpqua120121971
Wedderburn119951970
Days Creek120141978
Derby119931980
Modoc Point120111969
Emigrant Lake 2120222005
Adair120222022
Scio119951986
Svensen119901990
Elkton119941974
Clearwater120012001
Secret Val119881985
Canby120111994
Coquille120181994
Green119961995
Mcminnville120122011
Selma120062006

Green Heron Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarizonaarkansascaliforniaconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourinebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomapennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsin

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.