BirdAnalyst
Species · Oklahoma · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Great Blue Heron Population Trend in Oklahoma

All statesWetland birds

Great Blue Heron in Oklahoma has surged: up 86% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

+86%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
67Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Great Blue Heron Trends in OklahomaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Great Blue Heron has surged in Oklahoma: up 86% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

Great Blue Heron Population Forecast in Oklahoma

If the recent trend holds, Great Blue Heron in Oklahoma is projected to rise about 15% by 2030 — from 1.3 in 2025 to a central estimate of 1.5 (95% range 0.52–2.4). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±25.1%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+15%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
1.5Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.52–2.495% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±25.1%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Great Blue Heron in Oklahoma is projected to rise about 15% by 2030 — from 1.3 in 2025 to a central estimate of 1.5 (95% range 0.52–2.4). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±25.1%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20261.40.512.4
20271.40.512.4
20281.40.522.4
20291.40.522.4
20301.50.522.4

Great Blue Heron Survey Routes in Oklahoma

Routes recording Great Blue Heron in Oklahoma.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Jet920241992
Elgin720162005
Mill Creek620251974
Randlett620251970
Phillips520251970
Welch520251972
Grimes420221975
Goodwater420211992
Mcalester319911967
Loco319851970
Cookietown320021970
Canadian320171976
Choctaw320231976
Noble320241988
Peoria320231969
Collinsville320211967
Douglas320221969
Chester319871971
Hollis320241995
Reed220171975
Baron220231967
Indianola220241974
Beggs220231971
Verden220171967
Eagle City220101990

Great Blue Heron Population Trend in Other States

alabamaalaskaarizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.