BirdAnalyst
Species · Texas · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Great Blue Heron Population Trend in Texas

All statesWetland birds

Great Blue Heron in Texas has increased: up 41% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

+41%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
201Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Great Blue Heron Trends in TexasNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Great Blue Heron in Texas. See the full index history below.

Great Blue Heron Population Forecast in Texas

If the recent trend holds, Great Blue Heron in Texas is projected to stay roughly flat through 2030, near 1.0 (95% range 0.44–1.6). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±55%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+9%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
1.0Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.44–1.695% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±55%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Great Blue Heron in Texas is projected to stay roughly flat through 2030, near 1.0 (95% range 0.44–1.6). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±55%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20261.00.441.6
20271.00.441.6
20281.00.441.6
20291.00.441.6
20301.00.441.6

Great Blue Heron Survey Routes in Texas

Routes recording Great Blue Heron in Texas.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
L. Atascosa Nwr2820251998
Sadler1220251976
Bayside 31120252005
Easton920131994
Weinert819941971
Mertzon820121969
Bayside 2720041997
Ola620251970
Henrietta620221968
Athens520241968
Chandler520041968
Gambill Ref.520251995
Padre Island Pais520152015
Oak Grove 2420252004
Manor420242013
Carlos420251993
Zapata319821971
Arenosa Crk320251971
Gause319971975
Harper320241972
Massey Lake320241970
Oakwood319951967
Thornton319841973
Glen Rose320251967
Gainesville320241969

Great Blue Heron Population Trend in Other States

alabamaalaskaarizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseeutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.