BirdAnalyst
Species · Texas · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Great Blue Heron Population Trend in Texas

All statesWetland birds

Great Blue Heron in Texas has increased: up 29% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

+29%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
198Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Great Blue Heron Trends in TexasNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Great Blue Heron in Texas. See the full index history below.

Great Blue Heron Population Forecast in Texas

If the recent trend holds, Great Blue Heron in Texas is projected to rise about 54% by 2029 — from 0.68 in 2024 to a central estimate of 1.0 (95% range 0.44–1.6). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±63%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+54%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
1.0Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.44–1.695% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±63%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Great Blue Heron in Texas is projected to rise about 54% by 2029 — from 0.68 in 2024 to a central estimate of 1.0 (95% range 0.44–1.6). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±63%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20251.00.441.6
20261.00.441.6
20271.00.441.6
20281.00.441.6
20291.00.441.6

Great Blue Heron Survey Routes in Texas

Routes recording Great Blue Heron in Texas.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Easton920131994
Weinert819941971
Mertzon820121969
Bayside 2720041997
Lag Atascosa620241970
Henrietta620221968
Megargel620231994
Athens520241968
Chandler520041968
Padre Island Pais520152015
Shields 2520232004
Sadler420241976
Manor420242013
Burton420241997
Cleburne420241996
Smyrna 2420182011
Bayside 3420242005
Zapata319821971
Winnie320231971
Stowell320231971
Gause319971975
Harper320241972
Massey Lake320241970
Oakwood319951967
Thornton319841973

Great Blue Heron Population Trend in Other States

alabamaalaskaarizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseeutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.